$BMT This drop was pretty decisive: it plunged 7% in 15m, with volume surging to 4.5x and the Z-score hitting 4. This is clearly more than just a minor move.
What’s interesting is that open interest fell along with it—down 1.86% over 15m and 1.37% over 1h, with nearly $800K wiped off the notional value. Price down + OI down basically looks more like longs deleveraging and stop-losses getting triggered than fresh short positions piling in. The aggressive trade imbalance was -9%, and the buy/sell ratio was 0.84, so sellers were the ones taking the initiative.
Price has already broken below the lower end of the recent 20-candle 5m range. OI is at the 92.5th percentile for abnormality, ranking #28 across the entire pool. With 24h trading volume at $101M and sufficient market depth, this breakdown doesn’t look much like a fakeout.
First, watch whether this wave of deleveraging can stop near the lower end of the range. If it can’t, there may be a second wave of stop-loss selling.
What’s interesting is that open interest fell along with it—down 1.86% over 15m and 1.37% over 1h, with nearly $800K wiped off the notional value. Price down + OI down basically looks more like longs deleveraging and stop-losses getting triggered than fresh short positions piling in. The aggressive trade imbalance was -9%, and the buy/sell ratio was 0.84, so sellers were the ones taking the initiative.
Price has already broken below the lower end of the recent 20-candle 5m range. OI is at the 92.5th percentile for abnormality, ranking #28 across the entire pool. With 24h trading volume at $101M and sufficient market depth, this breakdown doesn’t look much like a fakeout.
First, watch whether this wave of deleveraging can stop near the lower end of the range. If it can’t, there may be a second wave of stop-loss selling.