$TRUMP Breaking: Traders are no longer pricing in a full U.S. interest rate hike by the end of 2026
Traders are no longer pricing in a full U.S. interest rate hike by the end of 2026, as bets on Fed tightening have eased amid investors’ flight into bonds to escape falling stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 10–13 basis points to around 5.0% (its lowest level in a month), while the 2-year yield dropped about 10 basis points to around 4.72%, making it the most sensitive to interest rate expectations.
Key figures
10-year: around 5.02%–5.05% (a one-month low, and about 35 basis points below this month’s 24-year peak of 5.365%).
2-year: around 4.72%, after falling by as much as 10 basis points.
30-year: around 5.35%, its lowest level in about a month.
December hike: Its probability fell to around 76%–84%, depending on the tool, from 89%–94% at the start of the week.
October: The probability of a hold is around 89%, while the probability of a hike has fallen to around 11%.
Probability that the Fed holds rates through year-end: 16%, up from 10% yesterday (CoinDesk).
Why are rate hike bets declining?
$XAU
Traders are no longer pricing in a full U.S. interest rate hike by the end of 2026, as bets on Fed tightening have eased amid investors’ flight into bonds to escape falling stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 10–13 basis points to around 5.0% (its lowest level in a month), while the 2-year yield dropped about 10 basis points to around 4.72%, making it the most sensitive to interest rate expectations.
Key figures
10-year: around 5.02%–5.05% (a one-month low, and about 35 basis points below this month’s 24-year peak of 5.365%).
2-year: around 4.72%, after falling by as much as 10 basis points.
30-year: around 5.35%, its lowest level in about a month.
December hike: Its probability fell to around 76%–84%, depending on the tool, from 89%–94% at the start of the week.
October: The probability of a hold is around 89%, while the probability of a hike has fallen to around 11%.
Probability that the Fed holds rates through year-end: 16%, up from 10% yesterday (CoinDesk).
Why are rate hike bets declining?
$XAU