Brothers, BTC has dropped to 81,000 again, down nearly 4% in a single day.
A lot of people are asking me: When will we finally hit bottom? Let me lay it out plainly. Three huge mountains are weighing on the market right now, and each one is heavier than the last.
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**Mountain No. 1: The Fed keeps raising rates, and there’s no stopping it**
In September, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points. It was the first rate hike in three years. Don’t think that’s the end of it—the latest data shows the odds of another hike in December are already above 80%.
The Fed’s new chair, Warsh, is famously hawkish. His message is clear: rate hikes won’t stop until inflation is brought down. Rates are now at 3.75%–4%, and the market is still wondering whether they’ll reach 4.5%.
In other words: money is going to get more and more expensive, and risk assets—including crypto—will get drained of liquidity. This isn’t about a one-day drop; it’s a matter of the whole cycle.
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**Mountain No. 2: The US and Iran could go to war, escalating tensions in the Middle East**
This one is even more dramatic. The US and Israel have already drawn up a plan to launch a “short, high-intensity” military strike on Iran as soon as the US midterm elections end on November 3.
What would they target? Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile stockpiles.
The US has already sent a third carrier strike group to the Middle East. Iran has also made its position clear: if you attack us, we’ll bomb your bases and oil tankers throughout the Middle East.
What is the Strait of Hormuz? It’s a route for a third of the world’s oil shipments. If a war really breaks out, oil prices will shoot up, inflation will be even harder to contain, and the Fed will have even more reason to raise rates. It’s a vicious cycle.
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**Mountain No. 3: US tech stocks are crashing—is the AI bubble about to burst?**
The Nasdaq fell 2.6% last night, its biggest one-day drop since June. Meta just announced it plans to spend $825 billion on AI computing power, but its stock fell anyway. The market is starting to ask: After investing all that money, when will they earn it back?
Tesla, Google, and Microsoft are all falling. US tech stocks have been the anchor for risk assets over the past two years. If the anchor is rocking, can crypto really stay unaffected?
BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq is ridiculously high. When US stocks fall, BTC falls too.
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**Trump is stirring things up in the middle of it all**
The most interesting part is Trump. On one hand, he’s yelling at the Fed, “Why aren’t you cutting rates? Rates should be below 1%!” On the other, he’s preparing to attack Iran.
Come on, think about it: attack Iran → oil prices rise → inflation goes up → the Fed is even more likely to raise rates. Isn’t he shooting himself in the foot?
And he just canceled his meeting with Putin and is planning to sanction Russia too. The geopolitical chessboard is getting messier by the minute.
---
**My take: What should we do now?**
Honestly, until these three mountains move, even 80,000 isn’t the bottom.
But there’s no need to panic too much:
1. If Iran is actually attacked, there may be a panic sell-off in the short term—but that’s often a golden buying opportunity.
2. With the Fed having raised rates this much, we’re probably not far from the bottom of the cycle.
3. Institutions like BlackRock are still buying the dip against the trend, which suggests big money is waiting for even cheaper coins.
My own strategy: I’m neither buying the dip nor selling at a loss. I’m keeping cash on hand and waiting for a panic-driven plunge—for example, if BTC touches 70,000—before buying in gradually.
How low do you think this drop could go? Let’s talk in the comments.
$BTC $ETH #行情分析 #Macroeconomics
A lot of people are asking me: When will we finally hit bottom? Let me lay it out plainly. Three huge mountains are weighing on the market right now, and each one is heavier than the last.
---
**Mountain No. 1: The Fed keeps raising rates, and there’s no stopping it**
In September, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points. It was the first rate hike in three years. Don’t think that’s the end of it—the latest data shows the odds of another hike in December are already above 80%.
The Fed’s new chair, Warsh, is famously hawkish. His message is clear: rate hikes won’t stop until inflation is brought down. Rates are now at 3.75%–4%, and the market is still wondering whether they’ll reach 4.5%.
In other words: money is going to get more and more expensive, and risk assets—including crypto—will get drained of liquidity. This isn’t about a one-day drop; it’s a matter of the whole cycle.
---
**Mountain No. 2: The US and Iran could go to war, escalating tensions in the Middle East**
This one is even more dramatic. The US and Israel have already drawn up a plan to launch a “short, high-intensity” military strike on Iran as soon as the US midterm elections end on November 3.
What would they target? Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile stockpiles.
The US has already sent a third carrier strike group to the Middle East. Iran has also made its position clear: if you attack us, we’ll bomb your bases and oil tankers throughout the Middle East.
What is the Strait of Hormuz? It’s a route for a third of the world’s oil shipments. If a war really breaks out, oil prices will shoot up, inflation will be even harder to contain, and the Fed will have even more reason to raise rates. It’s a vicious cycle.
---
**Mountain No. 3: US tech stocks are crashing—is the AI bubble about to burst?**
The Nasdaq fell 2.6% last night, its biggest one-day drop since June. Meta just announced it plans to spend $825 billion on AI computing power, but its stock fell anyway. The market is starting to ask: After investing all that money, when will they earn it back?
Tesla, Google, and Microsoft are all falling. US tech stocks have been the anchor for risk assets over the past two years. If the anchor is rocking, can crypto really stay unaffected?
BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq is ridiculously high. When US stocks fall, BTC falls too.
---
**Trump is stirring things up in the middle of it all**
The most interesting part is Trump. On one hand, he’s yelling at the Fed, “Why aren’t you cutting rates? Rates should be below 1%!” On the other, he’s preparing to attack Iran.
Come on, think about it: attack Iran → oil prices rise → inflation goes up → the Fed is even more likely to raise rates. Isn’t he shooting himself in the foot?
And he just canceled his meeting with Putin and is planning to sanction Russia too. The geopolitical chessboard is getting messier by the minute.
---
**My take: What should we do now?**
Honestly, until these three mountains move, even 80,000 isn’t the bottom.
But there’s no need to panic too much:
1. If Iran is actually attacked, there may be a panic sell-off in the short term—but that’s often a golden buying opportunity.
2. With the Fed having raised rates this much, we’re probably not far from the bottom of the cycle.
3. Institutions like BlackRock are still buying the dip against the trend, which suggests big money is waiting for even cheaper coins.
My own strategy: I’m neither buying the dip nor selling at a loss. I’m keeping cash on hand and waiting for a panic-driven plunge—for example, if BTC touches 70,000—before buying in gradually.
How low do you think this drop could go? Let’s talk in the comments.
$BTC $ETH #行情分析 #Macroeconomics