AI selloff paradoxically eased Fed rate-hike expectations: December hike probability falls to 85%
📌 Reuters (10/23): Concerns about AI financing sparked a tech stock selloff, and markets nearly erased pricing for one 25bp hike next year. The implied probability of a December hike fell to around 85%, no longer fully priced in
📌 The U.S. 2-year yield fell nearly 19bp overnight to around 4.66%. The 10-year yield dropped more than 19bp, its biggest one-day decline since March 2023, and is now around 4.96%, back below 5%
📌 Meanwhile, Brent briefly hit a five-month high of $114. Gold fell nearly 3% overnight before stabilizing at around $4,022, with no safe-haven buying
📌 BTC is around $81,300, still down about 3% over 24h (Investing.com/CoinMarketCap)
【View】
This time, “growth fears outweighed inflation fears”: oil prices rose while yields fell, suggesting investors are more worried that an AI bubble bursting could drag down the economy than about energy-driven inflation. For risk assets, this is a double-edged sword—easier rate expectations are positive, but they stem from tech stocks bleeding, and BTC is still tracking the Nasdaq in the short term rather than making an independent move.
【Opportunities/Risks】
✅ If next week’s 10/27-28 policy meeting is dovish and the probability of a December hike continues to fall, BTC could first rebound into the 82,000–85,000 range
⚠️ Risk 1: Oil at $114, combined with escalating tensions in the Middle East, could send inflation data higher and quickly revive rate-hike expectations
⚠️ Risk 2: ING believes the 10-year yield is likely to move back above 5%. If yields rebound while tech stocks fail to rise, that would be the worst combination
👀 Watch: The 80,000 round-number level, whether the U.S. 2-year yield can hold 4.6%, and the wording of next week’s policy statement
Do you think the Fed will still hike rates in December? Which will have a bigger impact on BTC—whether they hike or not, oil prices or AI? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇
#美联储 #加息 #美债 #宏观 #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; not investment advice
📌 Reuters (10/23): Concerns about AI financing sparked a tech stock selloff, and markets nearly erased pricing for one 25bp hike next year. The implied probability of a December hike fell to around 85%, no longer fully priced in
📌 The U.S. 2-year yield fell nearly 19bp overnight to around 4.66%. The 10-year yield dropped more than 19bp, its biggest one-day decline since March 2023, and is now around 4.96%, back below 5%
📌 Meanwhile, Brent briefly hit a five-month high of $114. Gold fell nearly 3% overnight before stabilizing at around $4,022, with no safe-haven buying
📌 BTC is around $81,300, still down about 3% over 24h (Investing.com/CoinMarketCap)
【View】
This time, “growth fears outweighed inflation fears”: oil prices rose while yields fell, suggesting investors are more worried that an AI bubble bursting could drag down the economy than about energy-driven inflation. For risk assets, this is a double-edged sword—easier rate expectations are positive, but they stem from tech stocks bleeding, and BTC is still tracking the Nasdaq in the short term rather than making an independent move.
【Opportunities/Risks】
✅ If next week’s 10/27-28 policy meeting is dovish and the probability of a December hike continues to fall, BTC could first rebound into the 82,000–85,000 range
⚠️ Risk 1: Oil at $114, combined with escalating tensions in the Middle East, could send inflation data higher and quickly revive rate-hike expectations
⚠️ Risk 2: ING believes the 10-year yield is likely to move back above 5%. If yields rebound while tech stocks fail to rise, that would be the worst combination
👀 Watch: The 80,000 round-number level, whether the U.S. 2-year yield can hold 4.6%, and the wording of next week’s policy statement
Do you think the Fed will still hike rates in December? Which will have a bigger impact on BTC—whether they hike or not, oil prices or AI? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇
#美联储 #加息 #美债 #宏观 #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; not investment advice