BTC spot ETFs saw combined net inflows of about $1.07 billion in the first three days of this week. On Thursday, BTC still fell from $84,808 to around $81,100, dragged down by a sell-off in U.S. AI stocks and rising oil prices.
ETF buying failed to hold $84,000; for now, the short-term direction depends on U.S. stocks.
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🔥 The 3 most important things today
1) Meta issues new shares to raise money; U.S. AI stocks fall across the board
What happened: After its earnings report on Wednesday, Meta announced it would create a new class of non-voting Class C shares to fund AI investments. Free cash flow in the third quarter was -$2.12 billion, the first negative reading in more than a decade. On Thursday, Meta fell about 7%, Nvidia fell 4%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%—its biggest drop since June 5.
What it means for crypto: Brent crude rose about 3% to around $112 the same day, while BTC fell to around $81,100. Crypto stocks including Strategy and Coinbase fell 4% to 6%. If AI stocks keep falling, BTC is likely to weaken in the short term as well.
2) Update: BTC ETFs see $1.07 billion in net inflows over three days, but the price hasn’t followed
What happened: BTC spot ETFs saw $528 million in net inflows on Wednesday, including $235 million for BlackRock’s IBIT, $213 million for Fidelity’s FBTC, and a combined $51 million for Grayscale and Bitwise. ETH spot ETFs saw $14.9 million in net inflows, ending a five-day streak of outflows, though BlackRock’s ETHA still saw $29.3 million in net outflows.
What it means for crypto: This followed Monday’s $665 million in net inflows to IBIT alone. After three days of buying, BTC stayed above $84,000 for less than a day; sell orders at higher prices outweighed ETF buying. Glassnode data shows that $85,000–$87,500 is the next zone where sell orders and liquidation prices are concentrated. BTC needs to reclaim this range before it has room to move higher.
3) Treasury yields fall 20 basis points in a day; rate hike odds drop to 8%
What happened: After stocks fell, investors bought Treasuries. The 10-year yield dropped about 20 basis points in a day to 4.945%, falling below 5% for the first time in a month. CME data shows the probability of a Fed rate hike next week has fallen to 8%, down from 16% a day ago and 28% a week ago.
What it means for crypto: This follows the hotter-than-expected inflation data on October 14, which raised rate hike expectations. Falling rates are positive for BTC, in contrast to the drop in AI stocks. With both happening at once, BTC is currently trading between $80,000 and $84,000.
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⚡ Quick takes
▸ AI: OpenAI is reportedly seeking to raise up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, with UAE investors and Coatue leading the round.
▸ AI: Anthropic could reportedly make its IPO prospectus public as soon as today, with plans to go public in November.
▸ Crypto: Visa is in talks to acquire custody provider Fireblocks for about $2.5 billion, roughly 70% below its $8 billion valuation in 2022.
▸ Crypto: a16z has renamed its crypto fund a16z frontier and expanded its investment scope to include AI.
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👀 A few things to watch today
1) Thursday’s ETF data: If net inflows remain above $200 million on a day BTC falls 3%, it would indicate institutions are buying the dip. A shift to net outflows would suggest the three-day inflow was just short-term trading.
2) BTC at $80,000: When BTC fell to around $80,000 on October 15, buying emerged near the cost basis of ETF and publicly listed company holdings. A drop below $80,000 would invalidate this support level.
3) Whether Nvidia and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can stabilize after the U.S. market opens. If Anthropic’s IPO prospectus is made public today, its revenue and compute contract data will directly affect AI stocks.
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📌 The $80,000 level below is support near the cost basis of ETF and publicly listed company holdings. Above, $85,000–$87,500 is a zone where sell orders and liquidation prices are concentrated.
⚠️ Narrative summary; not investment advice