The CSI 300 has officially entered a bear market! Down more than 20% from its June peak, wiping out about $2.4 trillion in Chinese stock market value
· Reuters: The CSI 300 closed down 1.8% at 4,036.30 on Thursday, 20.2% below its June 22 closing high and at its lowest level since July 2025; the Shanghai Composite fell 1.5%, and the ChiNext Composite dropped 4.4%.
· Bloomberg: About $2.4 trillion has been wiped from the value of Chinese stocks since their May peak. CNBC: The CSI 300 has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks.
· Hong Kong stocks also came under pressure: The Hang Seng Index fell 3% to a four-month low, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slid 5% to a two-year low. Alibaba fell more than 6% and Tencent dropped 2.9% (Reuters). South Korea’s KOSPI opened down another 2.36% this morning (Yonhap News Agency).
【Viewpoint】
This sell-off reflects three forces converging: doubts about AI valuations, weak domestic demand, and fading expectations for stimulus. Third-quarter GDP came in above expectations, paradoxically lowering expectations for further policy support. Hong Hao of Lotus Asset Management said the “national team” has remained on the sidelines. After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7% in a single day, it is difficult for Asia’s AI supply chain to escape the fallout.
【Opportunities/Risks】
① Watch for whether the “national team” steps in to support the market; historically, this has often signaled a turning point in sentiment.
② On Thursday, only consumer staples and utilities ended higher, suggesting the defensive rotation is continuing.
③ Crypto correlation: BTC has fallen back to around $81,000 (CoinDesk). Risk assets are deleveraging in tandem, and the $80,000 mark is a key near-term support level.
④ Risks: Selling pressure from tax filings for offshore trusts holding Hong Kong stocks, and inflationary pressure from Brent crude prices above $113 a barrel.
Do you think this is the “final plunge,” or is the bear market just beginning? Will the “national team” step in near the 4,000 level?
#A股 #沪深300 #港股 #AI泡沫 #宏观
$BTC $BNB
For reference only; this does not constitute investment advice
· Reuters: The CSI 300 closed down 1.8% at 4,036.30 on Thursday, 20.2% below its June 22 closing high and at its lowest level since July 2025; the Shanghai Composite fell 1.5%, and the ChiNext Composite dropped 4.4%.
· Bloomberg: About $2.4 trillion has been wiped from the value of Chinese stocks since their May peak. CNBC: The CSI 300 has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks.
· Hong Kong stocks also came under pressure: The Hang Seng Index fell 3% to a four-month low, while the Hang Seng Tech Index slid 5% to a two-year low. Alibaba fell more than 6% and Tencent dropped 2.9% (Reuters). South Korea’s KOSPI opened down another 2.36% this morning (Yonhap News Agency).
【Viewpoint】
This sell-off reflects three forces converging: doubts about AI valuations, weak domestic demand, and fading expectations for stimulus. Third-quarter GDP came in above expectations, paradoxically lowering expectations for further policy support. Hong Hao of Lotus Asset Management said the “national team” has remained on the sidelines. After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7% in a single day, it is difficult for Asia’s AI supply chain to escape the fallout.
【Opportunities/Risks】
① Watch for whether the “national team” steps in to support the market; historically, this has often signaled a turning point in sentiment.
② On Thursday, only consumer staples and utilities ended higher, suggesting the defensive rotation is continuing.
③ Crypto correlation: BTC has fallen back to around $81,000 (CoinDesk). Risk assets are deleveraging in tandem, and the $80,000 mark is a key near-term support level.
④ Risks: Selling pressure from tax filings for offshore trusts holding Hong Kong stocks, and inflationary pressure from Brent crude prices above $113 a barrel.
Do you think this is the “final plunge,” or is the bear market just beginning? Will the “national team” step in near the 4,000 level?
#A股 #沪深300 #港股 #AI泡沫 #宏观
$BTC $BNB
For reference only; this does not constitute investment advice