10.23 Chen Jie Morning Analysis
On Friday, watch for the final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, the flash U.S. services PMI, and UK and Canadian retail sales data. Official reserves remained at +23.02 tons, while institutional holdings plunged by 11.97 tons in a single day, as major players’ positions exited en masse. The market opened at 4029. After meeting resistance at 4032 in the morning session, it continued lower, broke below the 4020 level intraday and tested 4019; it is now trading around 4021. The previous bottom support has been decisively breached, moving averages across all timeframes are fanning downward, and bears currently have an absolute advantage.
Daily and 4-hour charts: The daily candle body fell below the lower band at 4047, while the middle band moved down to 4136. On the larger timeframe, downside potential points toward the previous low of 3943. The 4-hour chart broke below the lower band at 4031, with the middle band at 4104 acting as resistance.
1-hour and 15-minute charts: The 1-hour middle band moved down to 4058, and the lower band reached 4005. The 15-minute chart is tracking near the lower band at 4020, with the middle band at 4026 and the upper band at 4033. After the sharp short-term drop, price has moved away from the moving averages. Avoid chasing shorts directly at the low of 4021; it would be safer to wait for a rebound to the daily lower-band breakdown area and for price to remain below the 1-hour middle band before entering.
Trading strategy
Go short around 4040-4050, targeting 4010-3980-3950, with protection at 4065#xau $XAU
On Friday, watch for the final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, the flash U.S. services PMI, and UK and Canadian retail sales data. Official reserves remained at +23.02 tons, while institutional holdings plunged by 11.97 tons in a single day, as major players’ positions exited en masse. The market opened at 4029. After meeting resistance at 4032 in the morning session, it continued lower, broke below the 4020 level intraday and tested 4019; it is now trading around 4021. The previous bottom support has been decisively breached, moving averages across all timeframes are fanning downward, and bears currently have an absolute advantage.
Daily and 4-hour charts: The daily candle body fell below the lower band at 4047, while the middle band moved down to 4136. On the larger timeframe, downside potential points toward the previous low of 3943. The 4-hour chart broke below the lower band at 4031, with the middle band at 4104 acting as resistance.
1-hour and 15-minute charts: The 1-hour middle band moved down to 4058, and the lower band reached 4005. The 15-minute chart is tracking near the lower band at 4020, with the middle band at 4026 and the upper band at 4033. After the sharp short-term drop, price has moved away from the moving averages. Avoid chasing shorts directly at the low of 4021; it would be safer to wait for a rebound to the daily lower-band breakdown area and for price to remain below the 1-hour middle band before entering.
Trading strategy
Go short around 4040-4050, targeting 4010-3980-3950, with protection at 4065#xau $XAU