That drop last night was pretty interesting.
According to Farside, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw combined net inflows of about $1.07 billion over the three trading days from October 19 to 21. On the 21st alone, they took in $525 million—$235 million from BlackRock and $213 million from Fidelity. Money was clearly flowing in, yet $BTC got hammered from nearly $84,900 in the early hours yesterday, dipping to around $80,940 around midnight today. It’s now hovering around $81,200.
My take is that most of the selling pressure came from outside the crypto market: AI stocks broadly pulled back, the Nasdaq fell 2.6% in a single day, oil surged past $110, and risk assets were sold off across the board. More than $400 million in crypto futures positions were liquidated over 24 hours.
I’m paying closer attention to two cost-basis levels. Bitfinex estimates that ETF buyers’ average cost is around $84,333, which means they’re currently sitting on an overall unrealized loss. Glassnode puts the average cost basis for publicly traded companies’ Bitcoin treasuries at roughly $80,000; the daily close has stayed above that level every day since September 18. The $80,000–$84,000 range is right between the two largest groups of institutional buyers.
What’s more subtle is that Farside’s partial data for the 22nd already shows net outflows of $164 million, while BlackRock and Fidelity haven’t updated yet. If those two also turn to outflows, the $80,000 level will likely be tested again. Below that is the October 15 low of $79,800.
What do you think: with ETF investors underwater below $84,000, will they keep buying the dips, or will they become selling pressure on the way back up?
#比特币 #ETF fund flows
According to Farside, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw combined net inflows of about $1.07 billion over the three trading days from October 19 to 21. On the 21st alone, they took in $525 million—$235 million from BlackRock and $213 million from Fidelity. Money was clearly flowing in, yet $BTC got hammered from nearly $84,900 in the early hours yesterday, dipping to around $80,940 around midnight today. It’s now hovering around $81,200.
My take is that most of the selling pressure came from outside the crypto market: AI stocks broadly pulled back, the Nasdaq fell 2.6% in a single day, oil surged past $110, and risk assets were sold off across the board. More than $400 million in crypto futures positions were liquidated over 24 hours.
I’m paying closer attention to two cost-basis levels. Bitfinex estimates that ETF buyers’ average cost is around $84,333, which means they’re currently sitting on an overall unrealized loss. Glassnode puts the average cost basis for publicly traded companies’ Bitcoin treasuries at roughly $80,000; the daily close has stayed above that level every day since September 18. The $80,000–$84,000 range is right between the two largest groups of institutional buyers.
What’s more subtle is that Farside’s partial data for the 22nd already shows net outflows of $164 million, while BlackRock and Fidelity haven’t updated yet. If those two also turn to outflows, the $80,000 level will likely be tested again. Below that is the October 15 low of $79,800.
What do you think: with ETF investors underwater below $84,000, will they keep buying the dips, or will they become selling pressure on the way back up?
#比特币 #ETF fund flows