Tech earnings shock, crypto market takes a beating
BTC is around 81,300, down about 3.7% over 24 hours; ETH is around 2,380, down over 5% in 24 hours and falling below the key 2,400 level.
The trigger for this plunge came from U.S. stocks, not crypto.
Tesla lowered its spending outlook, while Meta saw its first cash outflow in a decade due to AI investment and plunged about 7%. The Nasdaq tumbled 2.6%, its biggest one-day drop since early June. Concerns over AI capital spending spread from tech stocks to crypto, dragging BTC down from a high of 84,785 to 81,331—a near $3,500 intraday retreat.
The bulls were thoroughly flushed out.
On October 22, liquidations across the market totaled about $221 million, including $207 million in long positions (93.7%). BTC longs worth $77 million were liquidated, along with $67.68 million in ETH longs. The largest single liquidation was a $11.78 million BTC long on Binance, closed at 83,526. Derivatives trading volume surged 19% to $226.6 billion, but open interest fell 2.46%, suggesting positions were being closed rather than new money entering the market.
ETFs are the only bright spot, but they can't provide immediate relief.
BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling $1.08 billion, turning October's cumulative flows positive to $461 million. ETH ETFs also ended a five-day outflow streak that day, with net inflows of $15 million. Money is flowing back in, but prices haven't followed suit. ETF flows are a slow-moving variable; market prices move fast. Tonight's U.S. market open is the key.
Macro: The final positioning battle before the FOMC.
The probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is as high as 74.8%. Rate-cut expectations have essentially been snuffed out, and the case for rates staying higher for longer remains intact.
Key levels:
For BTC, 80,000 is the lower end of this month's range and a psychological line of defense. A break below it would open up more downside. Above, 82,500–83,500 is the recovery target for today's rebound; failure to reclaim this range would signal continued weakness.
For ETH, 2,350–2,380 is a short-term support zone. Below 2,450.80 lies a dense liquidation zone for long positions, and a break below it could trigger another wave of forced selling.
In a nutshell: Tech earnings dragged markets down, longs were flushed out, and ETFs are buying—but not enough to stem the fall. Don't chase shorts, but don't rush to buy the dip either. Wait to see whether sentiment stabilizes after the U.S. market opens tonight, then decide which way to go.
BTC is around 81,300, down about 3.7% over 24 hours; ETH is around 2,380, down over 5% in 24 hours and falling below the key 2,400 level.
The trigger for this plunge came from U.S. stocks, not crypto.
Tesla lowered its spending outlook, while Meta saw its first cash outflow in a decade due to AI investment and plunged about 7%. The Nasdaq tumbled 2.6%, its biggest one-day drop since early June. Concerns over AI capital spending spread from tech stocks to crypto, dragging BTC down from a high of 84,785 to 81,331—a near $3,500 intraday retreat.
The bulls were thoroughly flushed out.
On October 22, liquidations across the market totaled about $221 million, including $207 million in long positions (93.7%). BTC longs worth $77 million were liquidated, along with $67.68 million in ETH longs. The largest single liquidation was a $11.78 million BTC long on Binance, closed at 83,526. Derivatives trading volume surged 19% to $226.6 billion, but open interest fell 2.46%, suggesting positions were being closed rather than new money entering the market.
ETFs are the only bright spot, but they can't provide immediate relief.
BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling $1.08 billion, turning October's cumulative flows positive to $461 million. ETH ETFs also ended a five-day outflow streak that day, with net inflows of $15 million. Money is flowing back in, but prices haven't followed suit. ETF flows are a slow-moving variable; market prices move fast. Tonight's U.S. market open is the key.
Macro: The final positioning battle before the FOMC.
The probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is as high as 74.8%. Rate-cut expectations have essentially been snuffed out, and the case for rates staying higher for longer remains intact.
Key levels:
For BTC, 80,000 is the lower end of this month's range and a psychological line of defense. A break below it would open up more downside. Above, 82,500–83,500 is the recovery target for today's rebound; failure to reclaim this range would signal continued weakness.
For ETH, 2,350–2,380 is a short-term support zone. Below 2,450.80 lies a dense liquidation zone for long positions, and a break below it could trigger another wave of forced selling.
In a nutshell: Tech earnings dragged markets down, longs were flushed out, and ETFs are buying—but not enough to stem the fall. Don't chase shorts, but don't rush to buy the dip either. Wait to see whether sentiment stabilizes after the U.S. market opens tonight, then decide which way to go.