Japan’s September core CPI rose to 2.1%, returning above 2% for the first time in nine months; anticipation builds ahead of the BOJ’s Oct. 29–30 meeting
According to MINKABU data, Japan’s nationwide CPI rose 2.1% year over year in September (previously 1.9%), while core CPI excluding fresh food also rose 2.1% (previously 1.7%). Both figures matched market expectations.
According to a previous Reuters poll, this would mark the first time core CPI has topped 2% since last December.
Background: On September 18, the BOJ voted 7–2 to raise interest rates to 1.25%; Tokyo’s core CPI reached 2.7% in September, and wholesale prices rose 6.8% year over year.
Meanwhile, BTC is fluctuating around $81,000 (The Block), and Brent crude is around $111.
【View】
The data came in as expected, with no “upside surprise,” but inflation’s return above 2% gives the BOJ another reason to raise rates at its next meeting. Reuters reports that many BOJ officials are cautious about raising rates as soon as October, so markets are more likely to bet on December than this month.
【Opportunities/Risks】
1. Watch the yen: A stronger yen and rising Japanese government bond yields often signal pressure to unwind carry trades, which have historically affected risk assets such as crypto.
2. Watch the wording of the BOJ’s Oct. 29–30 meeting statement for any signal of a December rate hike.
3. Key BTC levels: support at 81,560, resistance at 85,085 (TradingGain), and an average cost basis of about $84,333 for ETF holders (Bitfinex).
Do you think the BOJ’s next rate hike will come in October or December?
#日本CPI #日银加息 #Macro
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; this is not investment advice
According to MINKABU data, Japan’s nationwide CPI rose 2.1% year over year in September (previously 1.9%), while core CPI excluding fresh food also rose 2.1% (previously 1.7%). Both figures matched market expectations.
According to a previous Reuters poll, this would mark the first time core CPI has topped 2% since last December.
Background: On September 18, the BOJ voted 7–2 to raise interest rates to 1.25%; Tokyo’s core CPI reached 2.7% in September, and wholesale prices rose 6.8% year over year.
Meanwhile, BTC is fluctuating around $81,000 (The Block), and Brent crude is around $111.
【View】
The data came in as expected, with no “upside surprise,” but inflation’s return above 2% gives the BOJ another reason to raise rates at its next meeting. Reuters reports that many BOJ officials are cautious about raising rates as soon as October, so markets are more likely to bet on December than this month.
【Opportunities/Risks】
1. Watch the yen: A stronger yen and rising Japanese government bond yields often signal pressure to unwind carry trades, which have historically affected risk assets such as crypto.
2. Watch the wording of the BOJ’s Oct. 29–30 meeting statement for any signal of a December rate hike.
3. Key BTC levels: support at 81,560, resistance at 85,085 (TradingGain), and an average cost basis of about $84,333 for ETF holders (Bitfinex).
Do you think the BOJ’s next rate hike will come in October or December?
#日本CPI #日银加息 #Macro
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; this is not investment advice