French bond yields top U.S. Treasury yields for the first time in 13 years! U.S. stocks close lower, with Nasdaq down 2.6% for its worst day since July
📌 Reuters: France’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 5.06%, touching 5.14% intraday—its highest since July 2002—and topping the yield on Treasuries of the same maturity for the first time since 2013; the French-German spread widened to its largest in 15 years
📌 Treasuries rally: The 10-year yield fell about 15 bps to 4.97%, dropping below 5% for the first time since 9/23 (Bloomberg/Reuters)
📌 Close: Nasdaq -2.6%, S&P 500 -1.2%, Dow roughly flat; semiconductor index fell more than 6%, Meta dropped about 7–8%; Brent crude hit $111–112, its highest since May (Barron's/AP/Bloomberg)
📌 BTC also weakened, Reuters reported it at about $81,929, down 3.2% on the day
【Take】This is a classic “flight-to-safety divergence”: money is fleeing richly valued AI stocks and European sovereign debt amid fiscal instability, and flowing into Treasuries. Falling Treasury yields would normally be a liquidity tailwind, but oil above $112 is weighing on inflation expectations, so the case for rate cuts is not yet gaining traction. This time BTC moved with the Nasdaq, not interest rates, suggesting it is still being treated as a high-beta risk asset in the short term.
【Opportunities/Risks】
1️⃣ If the U.S. 10-year yield holds below 5% and oil prices retreat, BTC could find support around 81,500; a break below 80,000 would raise the risk of a test of lower support levels
2️⃣ If weekend protests in France and fiscal pressures intensify, the euro could weaken, benefiting the dollar and gold
3️⃣ Earnings from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon next week will be the next key test of the AI capital expenditure narrative
Do you think BTC will follow Treasury yields next, or continue to move with the Nasdaq?
#美股 #美债 #宏观 #BTC
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; not investment advice
📌 Reuters: France’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 5.06%, touching 5.14% intraday—its highest since July 2002—and topping the yield on Treasuries of the same maturity for the first time since 2013; the French-German spread widened to its largest in 15 years
📌 Treasuries rally: The 10-year yield fell about 15 bps to 4.97%, dropping below 5% for the first time since 9/23 (Bloomberg/Reuters)
📌 Close: Nasdaq -2.6%, S&P 500 -1.2%, Dow roughly flat; semiconductor index fell more than 6%, Meta dropped about 7–8%; Brent crude hit $111–112, its highest since May (Barron's/AP/Bloomberg)
📌 BTC also weakened, Reuters reported it at about $81,929, down 3.2% on the day
【Take】This is a classic “flight-to-safety divergence”: money is fleeing richly valued AI stocks and European sovereign debt amid fiscal instability, and flowing into Treasuries. Falling Treasury yields would normally be a liquidity tailwind, but oil above $112 is weighing on inflation expectations, so the case for rate cuts is not yet gaining traction. This time BTC moved with the Nasdaq, not interest rates, suggesting it is still being treated as a high-beta risk asset in the short term.
【Opportunities/Risks】
1️⃣ If the U.S. 10-year yield holds below 5% and oil prices retreat, BTC could find support around 81,500; a break below 80,000 would raise the risk of a test of lower support levels
2️⃣ If weekend protests in France and fiscal pressures intensify, the euro could weaken, benefiting the dollar and gold
3️⃣ Earnings from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon next week will be the next key test of the AI capital expenditure narrative
Do you think BTC will follow Treasury yields next, or continue to move with the Nasdaq?
#美股 #美债 #宏观 #BTC
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; not investment advice