At 2 a.m., Bitcoin was at 81,200, and bulls and bears alike were crying foul.
Just that day, I’d finished writing about how the squeeze to 85,000 had burned both sides. Then, overnight, it slid straight through 82,500—the “ironclad support” analysts had been talking about all week, gone just like that. The 24-hour high was 84,847 and the low was 80,939: a 4,000-point swing compressed into a single day.
The root of this drop isn’t crypto—it’s Tesla’s earnings.
EPS came in at 0.48, beating expectations of 0.44; revenue was 28.05 billion, which looked pretty decent too. But the company cut its full-year capex from 25 billion to 20 billion, while net income fell 43% year over year. This time, the market isn’t looking at how much you earned; it’s asking, “Are you still willing to spend?” With Optimus mass production pushed back to the end of 2027, the spending story has lost its punch, and the stock was already down 5% in premarket trading.
A whole chain of dominoes followed: Nasdaq futures weakened; Nvidia fell 2.3%, AMD 4.1%, and Intel 4.9%. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 3.52%, hitting its lowest level since April; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 5.03%, and Brent crude climbed above 112. When faith in AI capex wavers, assets sharing the same beta all get dragged down—Bitcoin and Ether took a beating too. $BTC $ETH
The wildest part is sentiment: alternative.me’s Fear and Greed Index is still showing 68, or Greed—even though prices are down 4%. I usually treat this kind of divergence as a contrarian signal. If people aren’t losing their nerve as prices fall, sentiment may not have bottomed out yet. The sentiment widget on the platform itself has already slipped to 47, or Neutral. The two readings are at odds, and sentiment is splitting.
The next thing to watch is whether Bitcoin can hold the key 81,000 level. If it can’t, the next stop is the cluster of max put open interest around 78,000, where bulls and bears will be at each other’s throats again.
Just that day, I’d finished writing about how the squeeze to 85,000 had burned both sides. Then, overnight, it slid straight through 82,500—the “ironclad support” analysts had been talking about all week, gone just like that. The 24-hour high was 84,847 and the low was 80,939: a 4,000-point swing compressed into a single day.
The root of this drop isn’t crypto—it’s Tesla’s earnings.
EPS came in at 0.48, beating expectations of 0.44; revenue was 28.05 billion, which looked pretty decent too. But the company cut its full-year capex from 25 billion to 20 billion, while net income fell 43% year over year. This time, the market isn’t looking at how much you earned; it’s asking, “Are you still willing to spend?” With Optimus mass production pushed back to the end of 2027, the spending story has lost its punch, and the stock was already down 5% in premarket trading.
A whole chain of dominoes followed: Nasdaq futures weakened; Nvidia fell 2.3%, AMD 4.1%, and Intel 4.9%. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 3.52%, hitting its lowest level since April; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 5.03%, and Brent crude climbed above 112. When faith in AI capex wavers, assets sharing the same beta all get dragged down—Bitcoin and Ether took a beating too. $BTC $ETH
The wildest part is sentiment: alternative.me’s Fear and Greed Index is still showing 68, or Greed—even though prices are down 4%. I usually treat this kind of divergence as a contrarian signal. If people aren’t losing their nerve as prices fall, sentiment may not have bottomed out yet. The sentiment widget on the platform itself has already slipped to 47, or Neutral. The two readings are at odds, and sentiment is splitting.
The next thing to watch is whether Bitcoin can hold the key 81,000 level. If it can’t, the next stop is the cluster of max put open interest around 78,000, where bulls and bears will be at each other’s throats again.