Kansas City Fed manufacturing data just came in softer than expected. Headline index ticked down to +11 from +14 last month.
But the real story is under the hood: new orders collapsed from +24 to +3. That's not a gentle slowdown—that's demand falling off a cliff. Production and shipments are easing too, but nothing like orders.
Meanwhile, prices paid jumped to +70 from +68. So input costs are still climbing even as demand craters. That's a nasty squeeze for manufacturers.
Employment barely budged—up from 0 to +1. When orders dry up and costs stay high, hiring doesn't follow.
This is the kind of data that makes you wonder if the soft landing narrative is getting a little too comfortable. Orders don't lie.
But the real story is under the hood: new orders collapsed from +24 to +3. That's not a gentle slowdown—that's demand falling off a cliff. Production and shipments are easing too, but nothing like orders.
Meanwhile, prices paid jumped to +70 from +68. So input costs are still climbing even as demand craters. That's a nasty squeeze for manufacturers.
Employment barely budged—up from 0 to +1. When orders dry up and costs stay high, hiring doesn't follow.
This is the kind of data that makes you wonder if the soft landing narrative is getting a little too comfortable. Orders don't lie.