Bitcoin is taking a hit. My bullish bias is still standing—but it has conditions.
$BTC is down roughly 4%, near $81,100. I see a correction under macro pressure, with institutional demand providing a counterweight. Here’s what matters 👇
🛢️ Middle East tensions pushed Brent above $112 during the session. My read: expensive energy keeps inflation concerns alive and makes an easier monetary backdrop harder to count on.
🤖 Meta and Tesla’s reports failed to settle concerns about AI spending and its eventual returns. That uncertainty is hitting technology stocks and weighing on broader risk appetite. Bitcoin is feeling the spillover.
🇺🇸 Initial jobless claims came in at 194,000 versus 200,000 expected, while continuing claims increased. That’s a mixed picture: limited new layoffs, but more people remaining on benefits. I don’t see this release alone creating urgency for Fed cuts.
Why haven’t I turned bearish?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.08 billion across the first three sessions of the week. Buying demand is present—even if sellers are winning today.
My thesis remains a correction within a recovery that still needs confirmation.
I’m watching the psychological $80,000 area and whether ETF demand persists. A sustained loss of that area alongside deteriorating flows would weaken my case. Recovering lost ground and holding it would strengthen it.
I’m comfortable keeping a bullish bias. I’m less comfortable pretending every red candle proves the market is offering a bargain.
Conviction needs room for new evidence.
Are you accumulating gradually here, or waiting for buyers to show more strength?
#Bitcoin❗ #BTC
$BTC is down roughly 4%, near $81,100. I see a correction under macro pressure, with institutional demand providing a counterweight. Here’s what matters 👇
🛢️ Middle East tensions pushed Brent above $112 during the session. My read: expensive energy keeps inflation concerns alive and makes an easier monetary backdrop harder to count on.
🤖 Meta and Tesla’s reports failed to settle concerns about AI spending and its eventual returns. That uncertainty is hitting technology stocks and weighing on broader risk appetite. Bitcoin is feeling the spillover.
🇺🇸 Initial jobless claims came in at 194,000 versus 200,000 expected, while continuing claims increased. That’s a mixed picture: limited new layoffs, but more people remaining on benefits. I don’t see this release alone creating urgency for Fed cuts.
Why haven’t I turned bearish?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.08 billion across the first three sessions of the week. Buying demand is present—even if sellers are winning today.
My thesis remains a correction within a recovery that still needs confirmation.
I’m watching the psychological $80,000 area and whether ETF demand persists. A sustained loss of that area alongside deteriorating flows would weaken my case. Recovering lost ground and holding it would strengthen it.
I’m comfortable keeping a bullish bias. I’m less comfortable pretending every red candle proves the market is offering a bargain.
Conviction needs room for new evidence.
Are you accumulating gradually here, or waiting for buyers to show more strength?
#Bitcoin❗ #BTC