đ Turning $159 million in BTC into ETH over 11 daysâwhat is this whale betting on?
Lookonchain update, October 22: A mysterious whale sold another 246.25 BTC (about $20.64 million) today and used the proceeds to buy 8,286 ETH.
The total over the past 11 days:
đš BTC sold: 1,917.7, worth about $159 million
đš ETH bought: 64,545, worth about $155 million
đš By October 14, just 3 days into the move, it had already sold 1,074.36 BTC and bought 36,159 ETH
A quick calculation shows that it converted more than half in the first 3 days, then exchanged only about 843 BTC over the following 8 days. The pace is slowing, not picking up.
My take:
A wallet doing the same thing for 11 consecutive days suggests it has a clear view on the ETH/BTC exchange rate, rather than just casually buying the dip. But this is a ârotation,â not ânew money coming inââBTC is being sold, so it doesnât count as net buying for the market overall.
Also, we donât know its cost basis, hedges, or time horizon. On-chain, we can see what it buys, but not whether it has an opposite position in the futures market.
The easiest mistake to make when following a whale is to copy its direction without copying its position size or patience. Itâs slowly rotating over 11 days; if a retail trader goes all in at once, thatâs not the same trade.
Whatâs the rough BTC-to-ETH ratio in your portfolio right now? Would a rotation signal like this make you adjust it? đ
#ETH #BTC #éžä¸ć°ćŽ #WhaleMovements
Lookonchain update, October 22: A mysterious whale sold another 246.25 BTC (about $20.64 million) today and used the proceeds to buy 8,286 ETH.
The total over the past 11 days:
đš BTC sold: 1,917.7, worth about $159 million
đš ETH bought: 64,545, worth about $155 million
đš By October 14, just 3 days into the move, it had already sold 1,074.36 BTC and bought 36,159 ETH
A quick calculation shows that it converted more than half in the first 3 days, then exchanged only about 843 BTC over the following 8 days. The pace is slowing, not picking up.
My take:
A wallet doing the same thing for 11 consecutive days suggests it has a clear view on the ETH/BTC exchange rate, rather than just casually buying the dip. But this is a ârotation,â not ânew money coming inââBTC is being sold, so it doesnât count as net buying for the market overall.
Also, we donât know its cost basis, hedges, or time horizon. On-chain, we can see what it buys, but not whether it has an opposite position in the futures market.
The easiest mistake to make when following a whale is to copy its direction without copying its position size or patience. Itâs slowly rotating over 11 days; if a retail trader goes all in at once, thatâs not the same trade.
Whatâs the rough BTC-to-ETH ratio in your portfolio right now? Would a rotation signal like this make you adjust it? đ
#ETH #BTC #éžä¸ć°ćŽ #WhaleMovements