U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have not reliably indicated Bitcoin’s next move, as investors generally buy after price rises and withdraw funds during declines, DWF Labs said. According to Cointelegraph, the firm’s research report, published Thursday, reviewed 694 trading days dating back to January 2024, when Bitcoin ETFs first launched in the US. DWF found net outflows during seven of the eight occasions when Bitcoin fell at least 15%, while all nine rallies of that size coincided with net inflows. The report concluded that ETF flows tend to confirm price moves rather than predict them. Daily flows had a 0.54 correlation with Bitcoin’s price changes over the five trading sessions before each day. For the following five days, the correlation was 0.03, indicating almost no relationship between flows and subsequent price direction. The findings suggest that ETF investors have mostly reacted to Bitcoin’s movements rather than driven them, DWF said.

The largest withdrawals occurred during the two most recent sell-offs: investors withdrew a net $6.9 billion between October 2025 and February 2026, followed by $8.2 billion during the May–June decline. DWF’s analysis did not distinguish between institutional and retail investors, and a spokesperson said the firm lacked a clear breakdown of ETF buyers and sellers. Some activity may involve investors buying ETF shares while taking opposing positions through CME futures to capture a price difference. DWF estimated roughly a fifth of flows may have been hedged, but said its data could not establish whether the same investors held both sides. A CoinShares analysis published in June found professional investors reduced Bitcoin ETF exposure by 17% in the first quarter of 2026; hedge funds and brokerages accounted for roughly 96% of the reduction, while banks increased holdings. DWF also found that Bitcoin has experienced about three sell-offs of 15% or more a year since the ETFs launched, compared with roughly four a year in 2022–2023 and eight in 2021. The declines have become more gradual, though the median sell-off was 21.3%, compared with 19.4% in 2022–2023. DWF said volatility and sell-off frequency had already been declining before the funds launched in 2024.