According to disclosures in regulatory filings by Meta, as of the end of September this year, the company had committed to a total of approximately $825 billion in future spending. This includes a range of agreements covering leases, cloud computing contracts and data centers, with a substantial portion directly related to AI computing capacity and infrastructure development. The figure is a sharp increase from the approximately $700 billion disclosed in July this year, with more than $100 billion in additional commitments made in just a few months.

Earlier, when Meta released its quarterly results on Wednesday, it raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast and announced a new class of non-voting shares, creating a potential financing tool for future acquisitions and other spending. The sudden expansion in future spending commitments, combined with the fact that Meta’s business model does not involve directly selling computing capacity to external customers, means the risk of overinvesting in data centers is more concentrated than it is for cloud computing rivals such as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.

Commitment details: leases and contracts advance on two fronts

According to a regulatory filing Meta submitted on Thursday, its $825 billion in future spending commitments consists of two parts.

First, operating and finance leases not yet included on the balance sheet total about $355.7 billion. These are leases for data centers and energy infrastructure that will commence at various times from the remainder of this year through 2036.

Second, as of September 30, the company had about $454.5 billion in non-cancelable short- and long-term contract commitments, primarily related to third-party cloud computing capacity, data center energy agreements, and purchases of consumer hardware products for its Reality Labs division.

Meta also disclosed a separate cloud computing purchase obligation: the company has committed to purchasing up to $14.7 billion in cloud computing capacity over five years, though the actual amount could be lower if the relevant cloud service provider sells the resources to other customers.

Expansion accelerates: commitments rise by more than $100 billion in three months

Compared with the figures disclosed in July, Meta’s future spending commitments increased by more than $100 billion in about three months, a marked acceleration in expansion.

In July this year, Meta disclosed in a regulatory filing that it had about $349.3 billion in non-cancelable contractual commitments, mainly related to third-party cloud computing transactions, servers, and network infrastructure. It also had about $347 billion in lease commitments for leases not yet commenced, including $68 billion added in July alone, with payments set to begin gradually between 2027 and 2028.

Meta said at the time that because some agreements contain variable terms, it estimated its obligations using only minimum quantities, and the actual total could be higher.

Different business model: not selling cloud services concentrates risk

Some of the market’s skepticism about Meta’s massive AI investments stems from fundamental differences between its business model and those of comparable competitors.

Unlike Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, Meta generally does not sell its computing capacity to external customers. This means its data center investments lack a direct source of external revenue to offset the costs. During its July quarterly earnings call, investors repeatedly asked CEO Mark Zuckerberg whether the company had any concrete plans to enter the cloud computing business, but Zuckerberg did not give a clear answer.

The distinctiveness of this business model makes it harder for analysts and investors to quantify the potential returns on AI investments, and has heightened caution about Meta’s continued expansion of its commitments.