83%: that’s how much DDR5 contract prices have risen since March. But over that same period, SK Hynix just had its worst week since 2008 last week—down 24%—while Samsung fell 18% (research firm Aephel, 10-22). Orders are booked through 2027, yet the stocks are getting pummeled. You don’t often see that in a memory cycle.
First, a few hard numbers I checked. $SMH 10-21 closed at 556.70, up about 1.9% from the previous day. The daily chart has already bounced from around 539 on 10-16, with 580 as the first hurdle above (data: Yahoo Finance, 10-21 close; the chart marks support at 539 and resistance at 580).
Valuation: the Korean duo are now trading at just 2.5–3 times expected 2027 earnings, while Micron $MU is at only 4.8 times. On 2027 earnings estimates, that’s genuinely not expensive for cyclical stocks—the expensive part was buying in before sentiment turned against them. Micron says it has already booked more than 75% of its 2027 capacity, and 2027 HBM prices will be “raised significantly” on January 1 (Aephel, 10-22). The price hikes are real.
Now let’s look at each company. Micron closed at 913.67 on 10-21 (+0.96%); it has the greatest leverage to rising DRAM prices. Samsung’s Xi’an plant is set to move directly from around 200-layer NAND to 286-layer NAND. The Xi’an plant accounts for 40% of Samsung’s global NAND capacity (Reuters exclusive, 10-21). SK Hynix’s Dalian plant is also set to move from 192 layers to more than 240. But both companies are held up by U.S. export licenses; how much of this upgrade cycle actually happens depends on how many licenses are approved. SanDisk $SNDK 10-21 closed at 1378.22 (+0.54%); it’s part of the NAND price-hike wave, but has been relatively quiet lately.
A quick note on Western Digital: it rose 3.9% last night to close at 378.51 after BofA raised its price target to $800 and forecast a 24% year-over-year increase in its average price per TB (TheStreet, 10-21). It reports after the U.S. market closes tonight; I’ll dig into the numbers in the earnings post.
So, is it time to get in, or has the rally already run its course? My take: this isn’t the tail end of a frenzy, but a recovery after sentiment-driven selling in the middle of an upward pricing cycle. Contract prices are still rising, capacity is booked through 2027, and valuations are in the single digits—the fundamentals haven’t weakened. But don’t get carried away: the stocks have already bounced quite a bit in the short term, and chasing them higher means betting on sentiment.
My invalidation conditions are simple: DDR5 contract prices stop rising and turn down, or Samsung/Hynix’s China upgrades get blocked by U.S. export licenses and Yangtze Memory launches a direct price war. If either happens, I’ll admit I was wrong.
Support: 539.07
Resistance: 580.08
Which side would you choose: Micron, with the most leverage to rising DRAM prices, or NAND, which is catching up in the price-hike wave?
⚠️Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
#半导体 #存储涨价 #AI
First, a few hard numbers I checked. $SMH 10-21 closed at 556.70, up about 1.9% from the previous day. The daily chart has already bounced from around 539 on 10-16, with 580 as the first hurdle above (data: Yahoo Finance, 10-21 close; the chart marks support at 539 and resistance at 580).
Valuation: the Korean duo are now trading at just 2.5–3 times expected 2027 earnings, while Micron $MU is at only 4.8 times. On 2027 earnings estimates, that’s genuinely not expensive for cyclical stocks—the expensive part was buying in before sentiment turned against them. Micron says it has already booked more than 75% of its 2027 capacity, and 2027 HBM prices will be “raised significantly” on January 1 (Aephel, 10-22). The price hikes are real.
Now let’s look at each company. Micron closed at 913.67 on 10-21 (+0.96%); it has the greatest leverage to rising DRAM prices. Samsung’s Xi’an plant is set to move directly from around 200-layer NAND to 286-layer NAND. The Xi’an plant accounts for 40% of Samsung’s global NAND capacity (Reuters exclusive, 10-21). SK Hynix’s Dalian plant is also set to move from 192 layers to more than 240. But both companies are held up by U.S. export licenses; how much of this upgrade cycle actually happens depends on how many licenses are approved. SanDisk $SNDK 10-21 closed at 1378.22 (+0.54%); it’s part of the NAND price-hike wave, but has been relatively quiet lately.
A quick note on Western Digital: it rose 3.9% last night to close at 378.51 after BofA raised its price target to $800 and forecast a 24% year-over-year increase in its average price per TB (TheStreet, 10-21). It reports after the U.S. market closes tonight; I’ll dig into the numbers in the earnings post.
So, is it time to get in, or has the rally already run its course? My take: this isn’t the tail end of a frenzy, but a recovery after sentiment-driven selling in the middle of an upward pricing cycle. Contract prices are still rising, capacity is booked through 2027, and valuations are in the single digits—the fundamentals haven’t weakened. But don’t get carried away: the stocks have already bounced quite a bit in the short term, and chasing them higher means betting on sentiment.
My invalidation conditions are simple: DDR5 contract prices stop rising and turn down, or Samsung/Hynix’s China upgrades get blocked by U.S. export licenses and Yangtze Memory launches a direct price war. If either happens, I’ll admit I was wrong.
Support: 539.07
Resistance: 580.08
Which side would you choose: Micron, with the most leverage to rising DRAM prices, or NAND, which is catching up in the price-hike wave?
⚠️Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
#半导体 #存储涨价 #AI