When I wrote yesterday evening about BTC breaking below 84,000, it had just pulled back from 84,898 and was stuck at 82,800. Institutions everywhere were calling 82,500 “the most important support level.”
Time for a recap: support? Gone.
$BTC is now at 81,782, with a 24-hour low of 81,653. That peak at 84,898 was confirmed last night. The supposedly rock-solid 82,500 held off the bears for less than a day before they flipped the table.
The most painful part is the divergence in the data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.1 billion in net inflows this week, including $528 million on Wednesday alone—that’s real money coming in. But the price? It still fell, from 84,898 to 81,653.
There’s an old statistic worth revisiting: during BTC’s three biggest rallies in history, each gaining more than 50%, average daily ETF inflows topped $200 million. Since July, the daily average has been just $86 million. By that measure, inflows have indeed “recovered,” but they’re still nowhere near enough to turn the market around. Institutions are gradually buying the dip, not scrambling to get in.
The options market is even more telling: among the BTC options expiring Friday on Deribit, the largest open interest is in puts with a strike price of 78,000. In plain English, smart money is buying protection against a drop below 78,000.
With 82,500 lost, here’s what to watch below: 81,000 is the first major level, and 81,500—the launch point of yesterday’s rebound—could also come into play. Below that is 78,000, where the options market is bracing for impact.
The bulls have one thing to hold on to: ETF inflows have continued for four straight days. As long as that streak holds, they’ll still have some ammunition ahead of the FOMC’s October 28 shot.
When money and price are at odds, don’t rush to pick a side.
#Bitcoin
Time for a recap: support? Gone.
$BTC is now at 81,782, with a 24-hour low of 81,653. That peak at 84,898 was confirmed last night. The supposedly rock-solid 82,500 held off the bears for less than a day before they flipped the table.
The most painful part is the divergence in the data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $1.1 billion in net inflows this week, including $528 million on Wednesday alone—that’s real money coming in. But the price? It still fell, from 84,898 to 81,653.
There’s an old statistic worth revisiting: during BTC’s three biggest rallies in history, each gaining more than 50%, average daily ETF inflows topped $200 million. Since July, the daily average has been just $86 million. By that measure, inflows have indeed “recovered,” but they’re still nowhere near enough to turn the market around. Institutions are gradually buying the dip, not scrambling to get in.
The options market is even more telling: among the BTC options expiring Friday on Deribit, the largest open interest is in puts with a strike price of 78,000. In plain English, smart money is buying protection against a drop below 78,000.
With 82,500 lost, here’s what to watch below: 81,000 is the first major level, and 81,500—the launch point of yesterday’s rebound—could also come into play. Below that is 78,000, where the options market is bracing for impact.
The bulls have one thing to hold on to: ETF inflows have continued for four straight days. As long as that streak holds, they’ll still have some ammunition ahead of the FOMC’s October 28 shot.
When money and price are at odds, don’t rush to pick a side.
#Bitcoin