$XAUT is quoted at $4,079.69, down 1.21% in 24 hours.
Honestly, I’m thinking of putting my running shoes away.
From January’s peak of $5,598, it’s now down more than 20%. New York gold futures already broke below $4,200, and tonight the $4,000 mark is looming.
The craziest thing is that gold’s safe-haven appeal has failed tonight.
South Korea’s stock market is down 3.52%, Hong Kong tech stocks are down more than 5%, Nasdaq futures are down 1.7% before the US market opens, and crypto-related stocks are broadly down 4% to 6%.
Going by the old script, gold should be getting snapped up in this kind of market.
Instead, it’s weakening right along with everything else.
$BTC also fell below $82,000, down 1.75% in 24 hours. It couldn’t even hold a round-number level.
The math isn’t complicated. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5.12%, the dollar index is hovering around 121, and expectations of a Fed rate hike in December are being repriced.
Gold doesn’t pay interest, and that makes the math unfavorable for everyone.
My view is that this downturn isn’t driven by sentiment; the whole pricing logic has shifted. The market has moved from betting on rate cuts to betting on a hawkish Fed.
With the new calculus, holding the $4,000 level would count as little more than moving sideways. If it really breaks below that, the $3,750 target cited by BofA won’t sound like scare tactics.
A recovery won’t count until gold gets back above $4,200.
#避险失灵 #技术性熊市 #Gold
Honestly, I’m thinking of putting my running shoes away.
From January’s peak of $5,598, it’s now down more than 20%. New York gold futures already broke below $4,200, and tonight the $4,000 mark is looming.
The craziest thing is that gold’s safe-haven appeal has failed tonight.
South Korea’s stock market is down 3.52%, Hong Kong tech stocks are down more than 5%, Nasdaq futures are down 1.7% before the US market opens, and crypto-related stocks are broadly down 4% to 6%.
Going by the old script, gold should be getting snapped up in this kind of market.
Instead, it’s weakening right along with everything else.
$BTC also fell below $82,000, down 1.75% in 24 hours. It couldn’t even hold a round-number level.
The math isn’t complicated. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5.12%, the dollar index is hovering around 121, and expectations of a Fed rate hike in December are being repriced.
Gold doesn’t pay interest, and that makes the math unfavorable for everyone.
My view is that this downturn isn’t driven by sentiment; the whole pricing logic has shifted. The market has moved from betting on rate cuts to betting on a hawkish Fed.
With the new calculus, holding the $4,000 level would count as little more than moving sideways. If it really breaks below that, the $3,750 target cited by BofA won’t sound like scare tactics.
A recovery won’t count until gold gets back above $4,200.
#避险失灵 #技术性熊市 #Gold