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Over the past few days, we’ve been watching for Bitcoin to make its second 4-hour rebound leg. Yesterday, the market finally produced the rebound structure we expected. Bitcoin reached 84,898 last night, while Ethereum hit 2,526. The 4-hour rebound structure has now played out perfectly, and the third 4-hour downward leg within the daily downtrend could begin at any time.

The first target for the third 4-hour downward leg is 74,500, the second is 72,500, and the third is around 70,600. We’ll have to see how things develop to find out where support holds. This decline looks likely to continue in a choppy downward trend until early November.

After this daily-scale decline ends, BTC would normally be expected to make another daily-scale rebound, reaching above 100,000. For now, focus on the strength of the daily-scale decline.

Medium- and short-term trend direction

4H main direction: The second 4H rebound within the daily correction may have ended. Wait for the third 4H decline to develop.

1H direction: A 1H decline is currently underway. A break below 80,600 would confirm that the previous 4H rebound has ended.

BTC short-term outlook

Because market conditions change quickly in the short term, this article can only forecast market movements at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market movements and use this analysis for reference only.

1H:

1) The move from 87,220 to 79,800 was the first 4H decline within the daily-scale correction, and the move from 79,800 to 84,898 was the second 4H rebound. The second 4H rebound may have ended. If price breaks below 80,600 further over the next day or two, that should confirm it.

2) The previous 4H rebound unfolded in three legs. From Monday until last night, the third 1H rebound was underway, reaching a high of 84,898. Today’s decline was very smooth and broke straight through 82,000, so we can confirm that the third 1H rebound has ended. A new 1H decline is now underway.

3) The current 1H decline is expected to continue. We’ll need to wait until tomorrow to assess its strength. If this 1H decline breaks below 80,600, we can confirm that a new 4H decline began near 84,898—in other words, the wave C decline in Elliott Wave theory.

4) If the 1H decline does not break below 80,600, we’ll then consider whether a fifth 1H rebound may develop to extend the 4H rebound.

5) If a 4H decline has begun, 76,000 is likely to be broken. After that, we’ll see how much further the decline can go.

15M:

1) On the 15-minute timeframe, a 15-minute rebound would normally be expected here. Let’s see whether it develops tonight.

2) For the 15-minute rebound, watch 83,000. Once the rebound is complete, a third 15-minute decline is expected. We’ll see whether that third decline can break below 80,600.

ETH

1) Ethereum’s 4H rebound has also played out successfully. The short-term long position opened near 2,385 earlier was closed for a profit near 2,495 last night. Short-term ETH trades have gone relatively smoothly over the past 10 days, with long and short trades together netting 410 points without any stop-losses.

2) The 4H rebound that began near 2,318 has now been underway for more than six days. It could end at any time, followed by a third 4H decline. The third 4H decline could reach 2,200 or the 2,000–2,200 range.

3) A 1H decline that began at 2,526 is currently underway and has not yet finished. If this 1H decline breaks below 2,340, we can basically confirm that the 4H rebound has ended. If the 1H decline still has not broken below 2,340 over the next day or two, we can then consider whether a fifth 1H rebound may develop to extend the 4H rebound.

4) On the 15-minute timeframe, a 15-minute decline has already played out, breaking straight through 2,400. In the short term, let’s see whether a second 15-minute rebound develops tonight, followed by a third 15-minute decline tomorrow. We’ll see how strong that third decline is.