Today is October 22, 2026. Bitcoin fell steadily last night after coming close to $85,000, even leaving a futures gap at $84,500. Spot ETFs saw net inflows of around $500 million, and this month ETF flows have flipped from net outflows to net inflows of 500 million. Yesterday, holders with less than 1 BTC were net sellers of 731 BTC; holders with 1–10 BTC were net sellers of 1 BTC; holders with 10–100 BTC were net sellers of 1,849 BTC; and holders with more than 100 BTC were net buyers of 3,094 BTC. In other words, money is flowing in across the board, yet the price has kept falling. To start with, funding rates have turned negative, which suggests that a lot of traders are shorting through futures contracts. But personally, I think the main reason is macroeconomic. I checked the five top stories on Jin10 Data, and all five were bearish. The biggest one: after talks with Trump's envoy ended, Russia fired 21 missiles at Kyiv. This news is honestly hard to stomach: they were preparing to negotiate a ceasefire, and then went straight back to fighting. But, well, I do think Putin genuinely wants to stop the war. The problem is that he’s been trapped on the throne. This war has cost Russia too much, and if he ends it without securing enough gains, he’ll inevitably be held to account. The second story: Iran and the US were also preparing for peace talks, and then the US got ready to evacuate its citizens and sent more warships. All I can say is that Russia and the US are cut from the same cloth. In response to this news, oil prices shot back up to $100 in a short time. By the way, after closing my WTI crude short last night, I’ve shorted oil again. Lately, shorting oil whenever it’s around $100 really has been a money-making formula. As for the ever-present talk of black swan events, my view hasn’t changed: the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israel-Iran conflict are both out in the open. The whole world is watching for any sign of trouble, so they’re not black swans. A black swan is an extremely unlikely event that happens outside human expectations. For example, 99.99% of people think Putin would never launch a nuclear weapon. I think so too, but if a little mushroom cloud actually goes up, that would be a black swan. Trump being shot in the head before the midterm elections would also be a black swan. These are events that are almost impossible but still happen, far exceeding market expectations. The market has no idea what impact they’ll have, so people sell to be safe. That’s why most black swan events lead to a fall.