The latest Reuters poll of economists shows a major shift in expectations for Fed rates: expectations of a hike in October have cooled, while another hike in December is now the unanimous view among all economists surveyed. The core tension is a resilient economy coupled with stubborn inflation, leaving monetary policy in a difficult position.

In the October 16–20 poll, 94 economists expected the FOMC to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 27–28 meeting, in line with market pricing. By contrast, fewer than half had expected a December hike in last month’s poll; this time, all 100 respondents forecast another hike in December. The Fed had already raised rates by 25 basis points in September. Chair Kevin Warsh has stuck to avoiding forward guidance, and policy remains cautious.