【European Session Update | 10.22】False breakout confirmed: the 83,100 exit line has been triggered. There’s no shame in staying flat and watching from the sidelines.
Price snapshot (Binance spot, 16:04): BTC 82,131 (24h -1.21%); ETH 2,422 (-1.39%); ETH/BTC 0.0295, also moving lower.
Let’s review this morning’s plan point by point:
1. Invalidated: “A retest of 84,000/83,700 holding = breakout confirmed” did not hold up. The hourly candle fell below 83,400 at 10 a.m. In the European session this afternoon, buyers didn’t step in; instead, five consecutive red candles drove price down from 82,925 to 82,100, breaking the 83,100 exit line from the morning post as well. I’m withdrawing the initial reversal call and treating this as a range-bound market again.
2. Confirmed: The morning post’s false-breakout scenario played out in full: “Reduce exposure below 83,400; exit and protect capital if 83,100 breaks.” Anyone who followed the plan is now either holding a small position or flat, watching from the sidelines. The midday post’s “absolutely do not chase longs in the middle of the range” also saved us from another hit. Looking back, that 84,898 wick in the early hours was the top of this rebound.
3. Revised: Back to full defense. Three support levels below: 82,000 (the second checkpoint from the midday post, now being tested in the European session), 81,600 (the lower edge of the old range), and the round-number level at 80,000. No dip-buying before the U.S. session: only consider re-entering if 82,000 holds and the Nasdaq stabilizes at 21:30. A decisive break below 82,000 puts 81,600 in view; below 81,600, look to 80,000. Tonight at 21:30 is the first full trading day after Tesla and Meta report earnings; risk appetite will take its cue from U.S. stocks.
ETH is moving in sync: it has fallen through the morning post’s support levels at 2,440 and 2,425, and is now hovering near the floor at 2,422, with 2,400 and 2,388 below. ETH/BTC is holding around 0.0295—not leading the decline, but don’t try to catch a falling knife either.
24h: BTC -1.21%, ETH -1.39%. Keep positions light ahead of the FOMC (10-27/28), and keep following the Nasdaq’s lead tonight.
Three hard rules: 1. This is only a record of my personal live trades, not investment advice; you are responsible for your own gains and losses. 2. Every trade must have a hard stop-loss. 3. Never hold and hope—staying alive means you can fight another day. Motto: Don’t chase breakouts; buy retests with conviction; exit immediately on a false breakout.
#BTC #ETH #实盘记录 #欧盘
Price snapshot (Binance spot, 16:04): BTC 82,131 (24h -1.21%); ETH 2,422 (-1.39%); ETH/BTC 0.0295, also moving lower.
Let’s review this morning’s plan point by point:
1. Invalidated: “A retest of 84,000/83,700 holding = breakout confirmed” did not hold up. The hourly candle fell below 83,400 at 10 a.m. In the European session this afternoon, buyers didn’t step in; instead, five consecutive red candles drove price down from 82,925 to 82,100, breaking the 83,100 exit line from the morning post as well. I’m withdrawing the initial reversal call and treating this as a range-bound market again.
2. Confirmed: The morning post’s false-breakout scenario played out in full: “Reduce exposure below 83,400; exit and protect capital if 83,100 breaks.” Anyone who followed the plan is now either holding a small position or flat, watching from the sidelines. The midday post’s “absolutely do not chase longs in the middle of the range” also saved us from another hit. Looking back, that 84,898 wick in the early hours was the top of this rebound.
3. Revised: Back to full defense. Three support levels below: 82,000 (the second checkpoint from the midday post, now being tested in the European session), 81,600 (the lower edge of the old range), and the round-number level at 80,000. No dip-buying before the U.S. session: only consider re-entering if 82,000 holds and the Nasdaq stabilizes at 21:30. A decisive break below 82,000 puts 81,600 in view; below 81,600, look to 80,000. Tonight at 21:30 is the first full trading day after Tesla and Meta report earnings; risk appetite will take its cue from U.S. stocks.
ETH is moving in sync: it has fallen through the morning post’s support levels at 2,440 and 2,425, and is now hovering near the floor at 2,422, with 2,400 and 2,388 below. ETH/BTC is holding around 0.0295—not leading the decline, but don’t try to catch a falling knife either.
24h: BTC -1.21%, ETH -1.39%. Keep positions light ahead of the FOMC (10-27/28), and keep following the Nasdaq’s lead tonight.
Three hard rules: 1. This is only a record of my personal live trades, not investment advice; you are responsible for your own gains and losses. 2. Every trade must have a hard stop-loss. 3. Never hold and hope—staying alive means you can fight another day. Motto: Don’t chase breakouts; buy retests with conviction; exit immediately on a false breakout.
#BTC #ETH #实盘记录 #欧盘