New capital is flowing back in—but how far are we from saying “demand has stabilized”?
BlockBeats reported on October 22 (Beijing time) that analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the share of funds from new investors in the Bitcoin network had risen to 11.2% as of October 21, up from a year-to-date low of 6.6% on July 5. This shows that the share of new capital has recovered somewhat, but don’t mistake “recovery” for “strong buying pressure”: the report also noted that the figure remains below the levels above 20% seen in 2024 and 2025.
Why is this indicator worth watching? The share of funds from new investors offers one way to track changes in capital from new participants, but it is not a promise of future buying, nor can it show on its own whether that money will remain in the market. For market participants, a sustained increase in new capital could indicate improving buyer demand; if the rise is only temporary, the indicator may not support a claim of a “trend reversal.”
Another data point is the average cost basis of short-term holders, at around $75,100, with the group sitting on unrealized gains of about 9.5% overall. BlockBeats also reported that this group had remained profitable for 63 consecutive days since August 20, with its unrealized profit margin peaking at 16% on October 5. Being in profit may give holders more room to keep holding, but it may also lead some to take profits. The profit figures alone do not tell us what they will do.
Those who hold Bitcoin could benefit if new demand continues to strengthen, but the cost could also fall on recent entrants, who may be more sensitive to price swings. If prices pull back, their profit cushion will shrink, which could increase the willingness to sell. It’s important to stress that this is a conditional assessment of holder behavior, not confirmation that selling is already taking place.
The counterevidence is clear: although the share of new capital is above its July low, it has yet to return to the levels above 20% seen previously. Short-term holders’ unrealized gains have also fallen from 16% on October 5 to the roughly 9.5% cited in the report. This is a reminder that capital flowing back in does not mean it is returning quickly enough, much less that prices can keep rising. Indicators can describe the state of market participants, but they cannot replace monitoring what happens next.
For $BTC , I’d treat 11.2% as a signal worth tracking, not a conclusion. The report also offers specific levels to watch: if the share of funds from new investors breaks above 11.5%, the analyst believes buyer demand is strengthening further; if it falls below 10%, that could indicate that inflows of new capital have stalled. Meanwhile, if the price falls below $75,100, short-term holders would collectively move into loss, potentially increasing selling pressure. These are conditional assessments, not outcomes that have already occurred.
$ETH is outside the scope of this Bitcoin capital-structure data, so the same indicators should not be applied to it. Going forward, I’ll watch whether the share of funds from new investors moves above or falls back below the levels mentioned, and whether the short-term holder cost basis is tested. Only when subsequent data confirms the move can we judge whether this recovery marks sustained improvement or merely a rebound that has yet to find its footing.
BlockBeats reported on October 22 (Beijing time) that analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the share of funds from new investors in the Bitcoin network had risen to 11.2% as of October 21, up from a year-to-date low of 6.6% on July 5. This shows that the share of new capital has recovered somewhat, but don’t mistake “recovery” for “strong buying pressure”: the report also noted that the figure remains below the levels above 20% seen in 2024 and 2025.
Why is this indicator worth watching? The share of funds from new investors offers one way to track changes in capital from new participants, but it is not a promise of future buying, nor can it show on its own whether that money will remain in the market. For market participants, a sustained increase in new capital could indicate improving buyer demand; if the rise is only temporary, the indicator may not support a claim of a “trend reversal.”
Another data point is the average cost basis of short-term holders, at around $75,100, with the group sitting on unrealized gains of about 9.5% overall. BlockBeats also reported that this group had remained profitable for 63 consecutive days since August 20, with its unrealized profit margin peaking at 16% on October 5. Being in profit may give holders more room to keep holding, but it may also lead some to take profits. The profit figures alone do not tell us what they will do.
Those who hold Bitcoin could benefit if new demand continues to strengthen, but the cost could also fall on recent entrants, who may be more sensitive to price swings. If prices pull back, their profit cushion will shrink, which could increase the willingness to sell. It’s important to stress that this is a conditional assessment of holder behavior, not confirmation that selling is already taking place.
The counterevidence is clear: although the share of new capital is above its July low, it has yet to return to the levels above 20% seen previously. Short-term holders’ unrealized gains have also fallen from 16% on October 5 to the roughly 9.5% cited in the report. This is a reminder that capital flowing back in does not mean it is returning quickly enough, much less that prices can keep rising. Indicators can describe the state of market participants, but they cannot replace monitoring what happens next.
For $BTC , I’d treat 11.2% as a signal worth tracking, not a conclusion. The report also offers specific levels to watch: if the share of funds from new investors breaks above 11.5%, the analyst believes buyer demand is strengthening further; if it falls below 10%, that could indicate that inflows of new capital have stalled. Meanwhile, if the price falls below $75,100, short-term holders would collectively move into loss, potentially increasing selling pressure. These are conditional assessments, not outcomes that have already occurred.
$ETH is outside the scope of this Bitcoin capital-structure data, so the same indicators should not be applied to it. Going forward, I’ll watch whether the share of funds from new investors moves above or falls back below the levels mentioned, and whether the short-term holder cost basis is tested. Only when subsequent data confirms the move can we judge whether this recovery marks sustained improvement or merely a rebound that has yet to find its footing.