When assessing the hardware cycle, I look at just three things:
1. Have the big players raised their capex guidance? That’s where it all starts.
2. Who’s holding the inventory—the channel or the original manufacturers?
3. Are prices rising because of shortages or because companies are holding back supply? Those are two completely different things.
The easiest mistake to make during earnings season is to mistake a one-off restocking cycle for long-term demand.
#硬件周期
1. Have the big players raised their capex guidance? That’s where it all starts.
2. Who’s holding the inventory—the channel or the original manufacturers?
3. Are prices rising because of shortages or because companies are holding back supply? Those are two completely different things.
The easiest mistake to make during earnings season is to mistake a one-off restocking cycle for long-term demand.
#硬件周期