Every Friday expiry, readers often ask: Bitcoin options’ max pain is at $82,500. Does that mean whales will definitely push the price back down? And if next week’s max pain is at $78,000, should I jump the gun and open a short?
Options max pain refers to the strike price on a specific expiration date at which option buyers collectively lose the most and the highest proportion of contracts expire worthless. To put it simply, it’s like a roulette wheel landing on the number with the fewest retail bets, allowing market makers to comfortably collect the most premiums.
According to Deribit and Binance spot data, BTC is currently trading at around $82,600. Open interest for tomorrow’s Friday expiry is about 15,000 BTC, with max pain at $82,500—very close to the spot price. But open interest for next week’s major May expiry exceeds 136,000 BTC, and max pain is at $78,000.
A common misconception is to treat max pain as a guaranteed target controlled by whales. It’s simply a static level calculated from current positioning. If strong spot buying emerges, market makers may have to chase spot purchases to dynamically hedge, potentially triggering a gamma squeeze that drives the price further away from max pain. Max pain tends to exert a pull only when there’s no catalyst and the market is consolidating with low volatility.
In short: max pain is a comfortable defensive zone for market makers, not a price oracle. In a range-bound market, watch for the pull; in a trend, watch the momentum.
This is solely my personal analysis. Please do your own research (DYOR) before investing.
$BTC
Options max pain refers to the strike price on a specific expiration date at which option buyers collectively lose the most and the highest proportion of contracts expire worthless. To put it simply, it’s like a roulette wheel landing on the number with the fewest retail bets, allowing market makers to comfortably collect the most premiums.
According to Deribit and Binance spot data, BTC is currently trading at around $82,600. Open interest for tomorrow’s Friday expiry is about 15,000 BTC, with max pain at $82,500—very close to the spot price. But open interest for next week’s major May expiry exceeds 136,000 BTC, and max pain is at $78,000.
A common misconception is to treat max pain as a guaranteed target controlled by whales. It’s simply a static level calculated from current positioning. If strong spot buying emerges, market makers may have to chase spot purchases to dynamically hedge, potentially triggering a gamma squeeze that drives the price further away from max pain. Max pain tends to exert a pull only when there’s no catalyst and the market is consolidating with low volatility.
In short: max pain is a comfortable defensive zone for market makers, not a price oracle. In a range-bound market, watch for the pull; in a trend, watch the momentum.
This is solely my personal analysis. Please do your own research (DYOR) before investing.
$BTC