With three trends side by side, the easiest thing to do is make up reasons for them. I’d rather first ask whether there was enough spot-market buying to absorb the sharp drops. Binance spot, rolling 24 hours: $IOST -26.09% (rolling 24 hours); $EPIC -22.65% (rolling 24 hours); $PROM +11.79% (rolling 24 hours). These figures only describe price movements. They don’t prove that anyone manipulated the market, or indicate that anything is wrong with the projects.
What concerns me most is whether liquidity was sufficient during the sharp drops. But we currently don’t have order book depth, position concentration, or fund flow data, so we can’t confirm how much buying or selling was available to absorb them. Trading volume is not the same as order book depth, so we can’t conclude from price data alone that liquidity has worsened. The rise in $PROM may also be supported by sustained demand, while the declines in IOST and EPIC may simply be short-term volatility. These are only possibilities, not established explanations.
I may also be putting too much weight on short-term prices. If verifiable order book and position changes become available, and we see sustained spot demand, I’ll revise my assessment. Until we have the evidence, let’s keep the price movements we can see separate from the reasons we haven’t yet established. #风险观察 #Contrarian
What concerns me most is whether liquidity was sufficient during the sharp drops. But we currently don’t have order book depth, position concentration, or fund flow data, so we can’t confirm how much buying or selling was available to absorb them. Trading volume is not the same as order book depth, so we can’t conclude from price data alone that liquidity has worsened. The rise in $PROM may also be supported by sustained demand, while the declines in IOST and EPIC may simply be short-term volatility. These are only possibilities, not established explanations.
I may also be putting too much weight on short-term prices. If verifiable order book and position changes become available, and we see sustained spot demand, I’ll revise my assessment. Until we have the evidence, let’s keep the price movements we can see separate from the reasons we haven’t yet established. #风险观察 #Contrarian