Reuters’ Oct. 16–20 survey of 100 economists: 94 expect the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct. 27–28, but all 100 are betting on a December hike—less than half thought so in the previous survey, meaning expectations have nearly doubled. With CPI at 3.7% year over year and PPI at 6.3%, the Fed having just raised rates by 25 bps in September (its first hike since 2023), and Chair Warsh offering no forward guidance, the bond market is being whipsawed by shifting bullish and bearish expectations. On Oct. 7, the 10-year Treasury yield had just surged to a multi-decade high. BTC has been range-bound between $80,000 and $87,000 this month, with the Fear & Greed Index at 63—essentially waiting for the Oct. 28 verdict. Until rate-hike expectations are priced in, risk assets can only scrape along the ceiling. #美联储 $BTC