The 4-hour candle closed at 11 a.m. today (Vietnam time): active spot order flow was negative 1,286 BTC, the most negative reading in the last 90 candles. In the past five and a half months, only 6 candles were more negative.

Many people see this figure and think whales are dumping. Not necessarily. At the same time, derivatives open interest fell 5.04%, the second-largest drop in 30 days. Falling open interest means some of the selling came from old positions closing—not necessarily new short positions being opened. The order book within 1.5% of the price was fairly balanced: 267 BTC in buy orders versus 262 BTC in sell orders.

Funding rates are hovering around 0%, with some sources reporting a slight negative rate of 0.003% every 8 hours. Holding a short position right now costs almost nothing in fees. The price fell just 1.39%, then bounced from $82,671 to $82,907.

I’m leaning toward a deleveraging move, not a reversal yet. A 4-hour candle close above $84,377 would mean the sell-off is over. If it closes below $82,670 and open interest starts rising again, I’ll change my mind and turn firmly bearish. $BTC #BTC #Bitcoin #crypto