$ARC This drop is pretty sharp: it plunged more than 9% in 15 minutes, with volume hitting 12 times normal levels and a Z-score of 11.65. Clearly, someone is dumping heavily or stop losses are cascading.
Aggressive trade flow on the order book is -8.8%, and the buy/sell ratio is 0.84, so selling pressure is dominant. But the OI data is interesting: 15m contract OI is down just 0.15%, or -806K notional, while 1h OI is still slightly up 0.52%, or -339K notional. Price down + OI down looks more like longs deleveraging and a stop-loss cascade, rather than a wave of new shorts entering. The anomaly percentile hit 100%, ranking #2 across the entire pool, which shows this move is extreme within the pool.
The price has already broken below the lower bound of the most recent 20 5m candles. 24h trading volume is 22.71M, and the market depth confirms the move. With this setup, I’m in no rush to buy the dip. I’ll wait for OI to stabilize and aggressive selling to ease, then see if there’s a chance of a rebound. Chasing shorts here doesn’t offer great risk-reward, since we’re already in an extreme zone.
Aggressive trade flow on the order book is -8.8%, and the buy/sell ratio is 0.84, so selling pressure is dominant. But the OI data is interesting: 15m contract OI is down just 0.15%, or -806K notional, while 1h OI is still slightly up 0.52%, or -339K notional. Price down + OI down looks more like longs deleveraging and a stop-loss cascade, rather than a wave of new shorts entering. The anomaly percentile hit 100%, ranking #2 across the entire pool, which shows this move is extreme within the pool.
The price has already broken below the lower bound of the most recent 20 5m candles. 24h trading volume is 22.71M, and the market depth confirms the move. With this setup, I’m in no rush to buy the dip. I’ll wait for OI to stabilize and aggressive selling to ease, then see if there’s a chance of a rebound. Chasing shorts here doesn’t offer great risk-reward, since we’re already in an extreme zone.