Bitcoin put in a false breakout last night.
It surged past 84,000 overnight and touched a high of 84,800, making it look like it was ready to take off. But it failed to hold, and this morning it came crashing back down. It’s now around 82,750.
Pushing past a key level only to quickly fall back below it is generally not a good sign. The bulls who chased the move last night are now all trapped above 84,000. Add in those who were already stuck there, and there’ll be even more people waiting to sell overhead.
So the situation now is this: heavy resistance above, and 82,500 is the level to watch below.
The 82,500 level is critical. Several institutions consider it Bitcoin’s most important support level. Price is now just over $200 away from it.
There are roughly three possible scenarios from here.
First, 82,500 holds, and Bitcoin chops between 82,500 and 84,000. This is the most likely scenario. Before the Fed meeting next week, big money generally isn’t keen to bet on a direction.
Second, 82,500 breaks decisively. The next stop would be around 81,200, at the lower boundary of the ascending channel from earlier. If that level fails too, the channel will be completely broken, opening up more room to fall.
Third, Bitcoin gets back above 84,000 and holds there. That would mean last night wasn’t a false breakout—it was just a shakeout, and the bulls are still in control. But with such a large supply of trapped holders overhead, this is the least likely scenario.
The broader environment isn’t helping much either. Brent crude is back above $110, and fighting is still ongoing around the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed meets next week. A rate hike at the end of the month is unlikely, but the probability of a hike in December is 75%, so money is still tight.
My stance for now: no need to rush into a trade. First, see whether 82,500 holds, then decide what to do next. #btc $BTC
It surged past 84,000 overnight and touched a high of 84,800, making it look like it was ready to take off. But it failed to hold, and this morning it came crashing back down. It’s now around 82,750.
Pushing past a key level only to quickly fall back below it is generally not a good sign. The bulls who chased the move last night are now all trapped above 84,000. Add in those who were already stuck there, and there’ll be even more people waiting to sell overhead.
So the situation now is this: heavy resistance above, and 82,500 is the level to watch below.
The 82,500 level is critical. Several institutions consider it Bitcoin’s most important support level. Price is now just over $200 away from it.
There are roughly three possible scenarios from here.
First, 82,500 holds, and Bitcoin chops between 82,500 and 84,000. This is the most likely scenario. Before the Fed meeting next week, big money generally isn’t keen to bet on a direction.
Second, 82,500 breaks decisively. The next stop would be around 81,200, at the lower boundary of the ascending channel from earlier. If that level fails too, the channel will be completely broken, opening up more room to fall.
Third, Bitcoin gets back above 84,000 and holds there. That would mean last night wasn’t a false breakout—it was just a shakeout, and the bulls are still in control. But with such a large supply of trapped holders overhead, this is the least likely scenario.
The broader environment isn’t helping much either. Brent crude is back above $110, and fighting is still ongoing around the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed meets next week. A rate hike at the end of the month is unlikely, but the probability of a hike in December is 75%, so money is still tight.
My stance for now: no need to rush into a trade. First, see whether 82,500 holds, then decide what to do next. #btc $BTC