[Commander-in-Chief Live Trading Log · Morning Post | 10.22] Breakout delivered; in the early reversal phase, a pullback to 84,000 will show whether it’s real
Price update (Binance spot, 08:04): BTC 84,235 (24h +1.52%); ETH 2,478 (+1.26%); ETH/BTC 0.02942. BTC is leading, with ETH following.
Overnight US session recap: All three major US stock indexes closed higher: Dow +0.69% to 52,856, S&P 500 +0.58% to 7,757, and Nasdaq +1.05% to 26,703. SpaceX earnings sent AI trading higher, with the stock up nearly 8%; Netflix fell 5%. After-hours movers diverged: Meta posted record revenue of 64 billion, issued better-than-expected guidance, and announced a 2-for-1 stock split, rising 2% after hours. Tesla beat expectations on both EPS at 0.48 and cash flow at 1.53 billion, yet fell 3.3% after hours in a “sell the news” reaction. Crypto also pushed higher: BTC broke above its previous high of 83,440 on heavy volume during the US session, surging to 84,898 for its highest level since 10-07, then held on an early-morning pullback to 84,060–84,180. ETH climbed to 2,527 and held 2,470. Yesterday’s “break 83,440, target 84,000” scenario played out in full.
Market assessment: upgraded—from recovery to the early stage of a reversal. All breakout conditions have been met, but 84,900–85,650 is a dense supply zone from late September to early October, making it difficult to clear in one go. Today’s key focus is the pullback: holding above 84,000/83,700 confirms the breakout; falling back below 83,400 signals a false breakout and a return to range-trading assumptions.
Overall plan for today: Don’t chase highs; prioritize buying pullbacks. Look for a steady hold in the 84,000–83,700 area to buy. A high-volume break above 84,900 opens the way to 85,000–85,650. Reduce positions if price falls below 83,400; exit defensively if it breaks 83,100. Keep positions moderate—don’t go all in during earnings digestion and a busy week of events.
BTC key levels: Resistance 84,900 → 85,000 → 85,270–85,650; support 84,000–84,100 → 83,700 → 83,400–83,440 → 83,100.
ETH key levels: Resistance 2,500–2,527 → 2,555 → 2,580; support 2,470 → 2,440–2,460 → 2,425. ETH/BTC 0.02942: following the move, not leading it.
Event calendar: Tonight at 21:30, US stock market opens (first full trading day after Tesla/Meta earnings); 10-27/28 FOMC, with the rate decision in the early hours of the 29th Beijing time; 10-29, US September PCE + Q3 GDP advance estimate.
Three hard rules: 1. This is only my personal live-trading log, not investment advice; you are responsible for your own gains and losses. 2. Every trade must have a hard stop-loss. 3. Never hold and hope—stay alive for the next battle. Motto: Don’t chase breakouts; buy pullbacks with conviction; exit immediately on a false break.
#BTC #ETH #实盘记录 #早帖
Price update (Binance spot, 08:04): BTC 84,235 (24h +1.52%); ETH 2,478 (+1.26%); ETH/BTC 0.02942. BTC is leading, with ETH following.
Overnight US session recap: All three major US stock indexes closed higher: Dow +0.69% to 52,856, S&P 500 +0.58% to 7,757, and Nasdaq +1.05% to 26,703. SpaceX earnings sent AI trading higher, with the stock up nearly 8%; Netflix fell 5%. After-hours movers diverged: Meta posted record revenue of 64 billion, issued better-than-expected guidance, and announced a 2-for-1 stock split, rising 2% after hours. Tesla beat expectations on both EPS at 0.48 and cash flow at 1.53 billion, yet fell 3.3% after hours in a “sell the news” reaction. Crypto also pushed higher: BTC broke above its previous high of 83,440 on heavy volume during the US session, surging to 84,898 for its highest level since 10-07, then held on an early-morning pullback to 84,060–84,180. ETH climbed to 2,527 and held 2,470. Yesterday’s “break 83,440, target 84,000” scenario played out in full.
Market assessment: upgraded—from recovery to the early stage of a reversal. All breakout conditions have been met, but 84,900–85,650 is a dense supply zone from late September to early October, making it difficult to clear in one go. Today’s key focus is the pullback: holding above 84,000/83,700 confirms the breakout; falling back below 83,400 signals a false breakout and a return to range-trading assumptions.
Overall plan for today: Don’t chase highs; prioritize buying pullbacks. Look for a steady hold in the 84,000–83,700 area to buy. A high-volume break above 84,900 opens the way to 85,000–85,650. Reduce positions if price falls below 83,400; exit defensively if it breaks 83,100. Keep positions moderate—don’t go all in during earnings digestion and a busy week of events.
BTC key levels: Resistance 84,900 → 85,000 → 85,270–85,650; support 84,000–84,100 → 83,700 → 83,400–83,440 → 83,100.
ETH key levels: Resistance 2,500–2,527 → 2,555 → 2,580; support 2,470 → 2,440–2,460 → 2,425. ETH/BTC 0.02942: following the move, not leading it.
Event calendar: Tonight at 21:30, US stock market opens (first full trading day after Tesla/Meta earnings); 10-27/28 FOMC, with the rate decision in the early hours of the 29th Beijing time; 10-29, US September PCE + Q3 GDP advance estimate.
Three hard rules: 1. This is only my personal live-trading log, not investment advice; you are responsible for your own gains and losses. 2. Every trade must have a hard stop-loss. 3. Never hold and hope—stay alive for the next battle. Motto: Don’t chase breakouts; buy pullbacks with conviction; exit immediately on a false break.
#BTC #ETH #实盘记录 #早帖
