Market maker’s perspective: $BTC — shakeout or trend reversal?
Snapshot: 2026-10-22 08:37
Current price 84,253｜24h high 84,876 / low 82,587.5
Overnight 1H price action (based on 1H closes):
From 04:00 to 06:00, three 1H candles ranged sideways between 84,384 and 84,804 (high 84,804.2). The 07:00 candle’s lower wick tested 84,010.2 before closing at 84,049.9. The 08:00 session is currently holding steady around 84,253.
OI and flows:
OKX OI: 3.109 million contracts ≈ $2.619 billion. Aggregate OI across all exchanges peaked at $3.565 billion at 01:00 and is now $3.467 billion, down about $97 million (around 2.7%).
Predicted funding rate: -0.0054%, turning negative after +0.0034% / +0.0072% / +0.0055% over the previous three periods; premium remains negative at -0.056%.
1H taker flow: at 07:00, net buyer inflow was about +$22.89 million; buyers remain dominant in the 08:00 session (not yet closed, for reference only).
━━━
If I were the market maker:
The third attempt at the 85,000 mark was rejected (the 24h high touched 84,876, but there was no close above it). OI peaked overnight and then contracted, while price pulled back to 84,010—the fuel for chasing longs has burned out, and no fresh buyers are coming in. The right move now isn’t to push higher again, but to pull back and wait for the other side to make a move.
Negative funding alongside a negative premium suggests retail sentiment has already cooled. But I wouldn’t push price below the 84,000 mark just yet: the 07:00 candle wicked down to 84,010 and recovered, and buyers returned in the 08:00 session—there are bids waiting at the door. If I were to make a move, I’d wait at least for a new 1H closing signal from the Asian session.
━━━
Retail traders following the market maker (wait for confirmation only):
Shakeout confirmed if: today’s 1H close is above 85,000 and buyer net inflows after 07:00 keep going—the area needs to be cleared before knocking again.
Trend reversal confirmed if: a 1H close falls below 84,000 and OI keeps contracting—if the 84,000 mark can’t hold, the next level to watch is 82,500.
Don’t chase price in the middle of the 84,200–84,800 range. Getting slapped by wicks in both directions is the most common scenario here.
Invalidation: If a 1H close at or above 85,000 occurs before 20:00 tonight, this post’s view that “price was rejected at the door; wait for a signal” is invalidated.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
Snapshot: 2026-10-22 08:37
Current price 84,253｜24h high 84,876 / low 82,587.5
Overnight 1H price action (based on 1H closes):
From 04:00 to 06:00, three 1H candles ranged sideways between 84,384 and 84,804 (high 84,804.2). The 07:00 candle’s lower wick tested 84,010.2 before closing at 84,049.9. The 08:00 session is currently holding steady around 84,253.
OI and flows:
OKX OI: 3.109 million contracts ≈ $2.619 billion. Aggregate OI across all exchanges peaked at $3.565 billion at 01:00 and is now $3.467 billion, down about $97 million (around 2.7%).
Predicted funding rate: -0.0054%, turning negative after +0.0034% / +0.0072% / +0.0055% over the previous three periods; premium remains negative at -0.056%.
1H taker flow: at 07:00, net buyer inflow was about +$22.89 million; buyers remain dominant in the 08:00 session (not yet closed, for reference only).
━━━
If I were the market maker:
The third attempt at the 85,000 mark was rejected (the 24h high touched 84,876, but there was no close above it). OI peaked overnight and then contracted, while price pulled back to 84,010—the fuel for chasing longs has burned out, and no fresh buyers are coming in. The right move now isn’t to push higher again, but to pull back and wait for the other side to make a move.
Negative funding alongside a negative premium suggests retail sentiment has already cooled. But I wouldn’t push price below the 84,000 mark just yet: the 07:00 candle wicked down to 84,010 and recovered, and buyers returned in the 08:00 session—there are bids waiting at the door. If I were to make a move, I’d wait at least for a new 1H closing signal from the Asian session.
━━━
Retail traders following the market maker (wait for confirmation only):
Shakeout confirmed if: today’s 1H close is above 85,000 and buyer net inflows after 07:00 keep going—the area needs to be cleared before knocking again.
Trend reversal confirmed if: a 1H close falls below 84,000 and OI keeps contracting—if the 84,000 mark can’t hold, the next level to watch is 82,500.
Don’t chase price in the middle of the 84,200–84,800 range. Getting slapped by wicks in both directions is the most common scenario here.
Invalidation: If a 1H close at or above 85,000 occurs before 20:00 tonight, this post’s view that “price was rejected at the door; wait for a signal” is invalidated.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective