Earnings season is putting results to the test (Tesla and $Meta have reported; Microsoft and Google report on 10-28, Amazon on 10-29, Apple on 11-2, and Nvidia on 11-18), so individual stocks may be more volatile than usual. Key factors include AI valuations and capital expenditure, expectations for Fed rate cuts, September CPI, and the Fed meeting on 10-27 to 28. For semiconductors, Nvidia’s 11-18 earnings report will set the tone; for software, watch Microsoft and Google Cloud growth. Coinbase and Strategy are moving in step with Bitcoin, while $SOXSB and $SQQQB are inverse-leveraged products that are likely to perform only if semiconductors or the Nasdaq weaken. Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. (including Alibaba and XPeng) have been under pressure recently, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index down 2.35%; assess them separately.
Watch southbound capital flows, the AI applications narrative (Zhipu, $MINIMAX , and GigaDevice Innovation have high upside potential, but are also highly volatile), the Fed’s rate path, and the renminbi exchange rate (onshore rate around 6.6777; appreciation is positive for risk appetite). Tencent and Alibaba are supported by buybacks and revaluation potential from cloud and AI; Xiaomi and Lenovo are riding the hardware-plus-AI narrative; Pop Mart is seeing mixed views on IP-driven consumer demand. After Tencent fell below 400, first watch resistance at 400 to 410 on any rebound.
Watch southbound capital flows, the AI applications narrative (Zhipu, $MINIMAX , and GigaDevice Innovation have high upside potential, but are also highly volatile), the Fed’s rate path, and the renminbi exchange rate (onshore rate around 6.6777; appreciation is positive for risk appetite). Tencent and Alibaba are supported by buybacks and revaluation potential from cloud and AI; Xiaomi and Lenovo are riding the hardware-plus-AI narrative; Pop Mart is seeing mixed views on IP-driven consumer demand. After Tencent fell below 400, first watch resistance at 400 to 410 on any rebound.