At 8 a.m. today, Scroll unlocked 97.42 million $SCR tokens as scheduled, worth approximately $2.06 million.

Those figures are correct: 97.42 million tokens, worth $2.06 million. That puts the price at just over two cents per token. The circulating supply was 190 million tokens, so this unlock adds nearly half that amount.

To put this in perspective, SCR’s total trading volume across all platforms is only about $2.6 million to $3.3 million a day. The tokens unlocked today are roughly equivalent to a day’s worth of trading volume. If the recipients were to dump them all today, the market might not be able to absorb them in a single day. It’s hard to say which would win in a showdown between the unlock volume and a day’s trading volume.

Of course, historical precedent is another matter. According to Tokenomist, most of this unlock is going to “Ecosystem and Growth,” not to investors cashing out. Ecosystem and treasury wallets generally don’t dump everything as soon as trading opens. In the past few unlocks, SCR ended with “moderate volatility” each time, with no crash.

But the numbers are right there, and they’re still a little jarring. The all-time high was $1.45; now it’s $0.021, down about 98.5%. Before this morning’s unlock, the price was holding around two cents, up 2% to 3% over 24 hours. The market looked fairly calm, at least.

My take is that the unlock itself isn’t necessarily bearish. What matters for the price is who gets the tokens and whether they sell. The price hasn’t collapsed, which suggests that, so far, we haven’t seen any major selling pressure. But that figure of 97.42 million tokens is sitting right there. For a two-cent coin, a 50% increase in circulating supply all at once is no small thing, however you look at it.

Unlocks where “the token count is scary, but the dollar value is underwhelming” don’t come around often. There’s just one thing to watch today: whether the unlock addresses move. If they do, that’s a story; if they don’t, today’s just something to watch for fun.

At this rate, after a few more unlocks, SCR holders might all be “billionaires”—in terms of token count, that is.