【Trading Psychology / Episode 1】Is it born in despair or does it mature in optimism? One chart to understand the crypto market’s current predicament
📜 Classic quote: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
📜 Quote attributed to: Sir John Templeton (Note: A pioneer of global investing and founder of the Templeton Fund. Known for his contrarian approach to investing, he offered this as a particularly incisive summary of long-term market cycles.)
💡 Analysis and practical takeaways: This quote sums up the psychology of a complete bull-bear cycle in capital markets:
Born on pessimism: At the bleakest point in a bear market, everyone says prices are heading to zero. That’s when a bottom quietly forms.
Grow on skepticism: Prices start rising, but most retail investors don’t believe it and think it’s a bear-market rally. The market keeps climbing amid all the doubt.
Mature on optimism: Everyone on social media is posting their gains, convinced the bull market has arrived. Good news is everywhere, and prices are nearing their peak.
Die on euphoria: The market descends into a frenzy (euphoria), with retail investors even borrowing money to buy in. Eventually, the bubble bursts and destruction follows.
🤔 The current market conundrum: Where are we in the cycle?
Watching BTC swing wildly at high levels over the past few days, I feel the market is in a mixed state: It looks like the “growing on skepticism” phase—many people don’t believe BTC can break to new highs, so plenty of bears are stubbornly holding their short positions, providing fuel for a rally. At the same time, some sectors are starting to show signs of “maturing on optimism”—MEME coins are everywhere, and speculation in some sectors has become frenzied.
So here’s the question: Have we seen true euphoria yet? Which phase do you think we’re in?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #TradingPsychology #CryptoHistory #TraderLife
📜 Classic quote: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
📜 Quote attributed to: Sir John Templeton (Note: A pioneer of global investing and founder of the Templeton Fund. Known for his contrarian approach to investing, he offered this as a particularly incisive summary of long-term market cycles.)
💡 Analysis and practical takeaways: This quote sums up the psychology of a complete bull-bear cycle in capital markets:
Born on pessimism: At the bleakest point in a bear market, everyone says prices are heading to zero. That’s when a bottom quietly forms.
Grow on skepticism: Prices start rising, but most retail investors don’t believe it and think it’s a bear-market rally. The market keeps climbing amid all the doubt.
Mature on optimism: Everyone on social media is posting their gains, convinced the bull market has arrived. Good news is everywhere, and prices are nearing their peak.
Die on euphoria: The market descends into a frenzy (euphoria), with retail investors even borrowing money to buy in. Eventually, the bubble bursts and destruction follows.
🤔 The current market conundrum: Where are we in the cycle?
Watching BTC swing wildly at high levels over the past few days, I feel the market is in a mixed state: It looks like the “growing on skepticism” phase—many people don’t believe BTC can break to new highs, so plenty of bears are stubbornly holding their short positions, providing fuel for a rally. At the same time, some sectors are starting to show signs of “maturing on optimism”—MEME coins are everywhere, and speculation in some sectors has become frenzied.
So here’s the question: Have we seen true euphoria yet? Which phase do you think we’re in?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #TradingPsychology #CryptoHistory #TraderLife
