📈 Is BTC “copying the 2019–2020 playbook”? Cowen’s overlay chart is making the rounds again
Analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s current price action with the 2019–2020 cycle, and came to an interesting conclusion: the steps of the decline and recovery look almost identical—except without the pandemic crash back then.
A few key points:
🔹 As of October 21, BTC was hovering around $84,500
🔹 Several rebounds in mid-August, September, and October lined up with key levels from the previous cycle
🔹 After excluding the extreme 2020 crash, his overlay chart and QF indicator show a 45% to 66% match during the recovery phase
🔹 Altcoin relative strength and market share indicators also look somewhat like the patterns seen in 2016 and 2020
The comments are split into two camps: one believes the bull market script is already written; the other argues that pullbacks have been shallower and the macro environment has changed, so you can’t force the comparison.
My take: a 45% to 66% match means “similar,” but nowhere near “the same.” Historical overlays are useful for thinking through possible scenarios, not for picking entry points. What’s genuinely useful are the support levels that have been repeatedly tested. If they hold, the scenario stays on track; if they break, admit the scenario has failed. Deciding in advance at what point you’ll admit you’re wrong matters far more than guessing whether history will repeat itself.
Do you trust cycle overlays, or only the candlesticks in front of you? 💬
#比特币 #BTC #周期 #CryptoMarket
Analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s current price action with the 2019–2020 cycle, and came to an interesting conclusion: the steps of the decline and recovery look almost identical—except without the pandemic crash back then.
A few key points:
🔹 As of October 21, BTC was hovering around $84,500
🔹 Several rebounds in mid-August, September, and October lined up with key levels from the previous cycle
🔹 After excluding the extreme 2020 crash, his overlay chart and QF indicator show a 45% to 66% match during the recovery phase
🔹 Altcoin relative strength and market share indicators also look somewhat like the patterns seen in 2016 and 2020
The comments are split into two camps: one believes the bull market script is already written; the other argues that pullbacks have been shallower and the macro environment has changed, so you can’t force the comparison.
My take: a 45% to 66% match means “similar,” but nowhere near “the same.” Historical overlays are useful for thinking through possible scenarios, not for picking entry points. What’s genuinely useful are the support levels that have been repeatedly tested. If they hold, the scenario stays on track; if they break, admit the scenario has failed. Deciding in advance at what point you’ll admit you’re wrong matters far more than guessing whether history will repeat itself.
Do you trust cycle overlays, or only the candlesticks in front of you? 💬
#比特币 #BTC #周期 #CryptoMarket