Solana (SOL) analysis today - October 21, 2026 ๐Ÿš€

๐Ÿ’ฐ Current price:

$106.26 - $108.28, up 1.9% today ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Today's range: $105.63 to $109.20

Market cap: $62.9 billion - ranked #7 worldwide

Volume: $2.67 billion (+1.18%)

Still down 63% from the peak of $293.31

Supply: 589 million SOL

๐Ÿ”ฅ Today's big event - Alpenglow:

Today, the biggest upgrade in Solana's history is launching:

Name: Alpenglow

Time: today, 13:20 UTC - 14:00 UTC (Epoch 1064)

What it does: replaces the old TowerBFT consensus system with a new one called Votor

Speed: Finality drops from 12.8 seconds to just 150 milliseconds, meaning 85x faster โšก๏ธ

Transactions will be interrupted for only 400 milliseconds during the upgrade

Analyst CryptosRus said: "SOL is about to get a lot faster"

That's why SOL is up today despite the pressure.

๐Ÿ“Š Technical analysis:

Bullish:

Barely holding above $100 โ€” every time it drops to $100, buyers step back in; the candles have long lower wicks

Above 5 of 8 moving averages, with the SMA 200 at $88.01 โ€” meaning the macro trend is still bullish

Daily RSI at 49.0 is neutral; 4-hour RSI at 61.2 is rising

Overall outlook: Strong Bullish Bias on the 4h, Daily, and Weekly charts โ€” all in agreement

Resistance levels:

R1: $112.45 (+3.5%) โ€” if it breaks through, it could make a solid move

R2: $119.21

R3: $128.72

Strong resistance between $108.39 - $110.56, where the SMA20, SMA50, and EMA12/26 are all clustered; strong liquidity is needed to break through

Support levels:

S1: $105.24 (-3.2%); if it breaks below, the outlook weakens

S2: $103.51

S3: $100.31 is the red line; if it falls below that, it could head to $90

โš ๏ธ Negative point:

Money has flowed out of SOL ETF funds for 11 consecutive sessions*, with more than *$60 million leaving in October

$6.7M flowed out yesterday, after $2.6M the day before

SkyAI sold all of its SOL

Conclusion and outlook for November:

From $106 now:

Bullish scenario: if Alpenglow succeeds in practice, we could see $125 (+17.9%) and then $150 โ€” $114 is the first target after $108

Bearish scenario: if it fails or the market doesn't react, we could return to $90 (-15%)