This afternoon’s post had just said 83,300–83,500 was a brick wall, and by evening Bitcoin had already touched 84,158. That reversal came faster than expected—and honestly, I like this kind of momentum.
But this breakout is different from the random jumps we’ve seen before. Price had been stuck between 81K and 83K for four days, while 28-day realized volatility fell to a year-to-date low (1.2%, according to K33). When the market gets compressed like that and still refuses to move, it’s building up energy. You don’t see this kind of compression every day.
Spot ETFs actually saw outflows last week, with $681 million pulled out over the week. Yet BlackRock’s IBIT took in 8,128 BTC on October 19 alone—the biggest single-day inflow since April last year. Institutions are far from moving in one direction: some are redeeming, while others are quietly buying the dip.
Here’s another interesting detail: ETF investors’ average cost basis is around 84,340, and the price is right around that level. Above it, there are plenty of investors who got stuck at higher prices; when the price gets back near their cost basis, some will be happy to break even and sell. So a real push higher will need fresh money to step in.
If BTC holds above 84K, the next level to watch is the October 2 high of 87,000. If it can’t hold 80K, the next support zone is around 77,500–78,000.
$BTC
But this breakout is different from the random jumps we’ve seen before. Price had been stuck between 81K and 83K for four days, while 28-day realized volatility fell to a year-to-date low (1.2%, according to K33). When the market gets compressed like that and still refuses to move, it’s building up energy. You don’t see this kind of compression every day.
Spot ETFs actually saw outflows last week, with $681 million pulled out over the week. Yet BlackRock’s IBIT took in 8,128 BTC on October 19 alone—the biggest single-day inflow since April last year. Institutions are far from moving in one direction: some are redeeming, while others are quietly buying the dip.
Here’s another interesting detail: ETF investors’ average cost basis is around 84,340, and the price is right around that level. Above it, there are plenty of investors who got stuck at higher prices; when the price gets back near their cost basis, some will be happy to break even and sell. So a real push higher will need fresh money to step in.
If BTC holds above 84K, the next level to watch is the October 2 high of 87,000. If it can’t hold 80K, the next support zone is around 77,500–78,000.
$BTC