Tesla Earnings Preview｜Deliveries Beat by 5%—Can Profits Keep Up Tonight?
$TSLA Tesla reports Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes tonight, with the earnings call at 5:30 p.m. ET. First, here’s what we already know: the delivery figures released on October 2 were impressive—Q3 deliveries came in at 486,532 vehicles, 5.3% above Tesla’s own tally of market expectations (461,974), and up 1.3% quarter over quarter. Production was 464,391 vehicles, marking the second consecutive quarter of drawing down inventory. Energy storage deployments reached 13.7 GWh, up nearly 10% year over year.
Key question #1: Deliveries are up, but can profits keep pace?
Q2 is a cautionary tale: revenue of $28.24 billion beat expectations, but adjusted EPS came in at just $0.33—one-third below the expected $0.50—and the stock plunged about 14% the next day. This time, Tesla delivered 24,000 more vehicles than expected, so the market will be focused on whether automotive gross margin has finally stopped falling. That’s the number most likely to move the stock tonight.
Key question #2: Conditions vary by region. U.S. Q3 sales were weighed down by the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit, falling nearly 20% year over year. Shanghai’s September wholesale volume, meanwhile, was its best month of 2026, with exports up 58%. European registrations rose 43.3% in the first eight months of the year.
Key question #3: The Cybercab / FSD rollout timeline, plus speculation about a SpaceX merger. Musk has confirmed that the two companies formed a committee to discuss a merger, and someone will likely ask him about it directly on tonight’s call.
As for company guidance: on the Q2 call, the CFO said the company had its largest order backlog since 2023. Tesla has delivered 1.325 million vehicles in the first three quarters of this year; another 311,000 in Q4 would bring it level with last year’s full-year total. (Analysts expect 1.82 million for full-year 2026.)
Market expectations vs. my forecast
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $0.44–$0.45 (Bloomberg / Zacks / TipRanks, non-GAAP), and revenue of about $28.1 billion (Bloomberg: $28.13 billion). A year ago, EPS was $0.50 and revenue was $28.1 billion. Analysts also expect Q3 free cash flow of -$4.51 billion and capex of $7.77 billion, making this a cash-burning quarter.
My forecast: adjusted EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $28.2 billion. The better-than-expected deliveries should push revenue above consensus, but margin pressure remains, and I expect EPS to come in slightly below market expectations.
Bull and bear scenarios
Holds above 349.3 → no gross-margin blowup → watch the 388.6 resistance level
Falls below 349.3 → Q2-style margin massacre → could head toward 335
Breaks above 388.6 (60-day high) → earnings plus merger narrative provide a double boost, opening the door for sentiment to turn
Support: $349.30
Resistance: $388.56
(The chart marks the support and resistance lines; yesterday’s close was $373.71.)
I’m on the sidelines, leaning bearish. The delivery news was already priced in during an early-October rally. Whether the stock can rise tonight depends entirely on whether gross margin and cash flow show real improvement—betting on earnings is too costly for retail investors given the uncertainty. I’d change my mind if automotive gross margin clearly recovers and guidance is raised.
Which side are you on tonight? A beat that sends it above 400, or a margin blowup that breaks 349?
⚠️ Just my personal ramblings; not investment advice.
#TSLA #财报季 #USStocks
$TSLA Tesla reports Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes tonight, with the earnings call at 5:30 p.m. ET. First, here’s what we already know: the delivery figures released on October 2 were impressive—Q3 deliveries came in at 486,532 vehicles, 5.3% above Tesla’s own tally of market expectations (461,974), and up 1.3% quarter over quarter. Production was 464,391 vehicles, marking the second consecutive quarter of drawing down inventory. Energy storage deployments reached 13.7 GWh, up nearly 10% year over year.
Key question #1: Deliveries are up, but can profits keep pace?
Q2 is a cautionary tale: revenue of $28.24 billion beat expectations, but adjusted EPS came in at just $0.33—one-third below the expected $0.50—and the stock plunged about 14% the next day. This time, Tesla delivered 24,000 more vehicles than expected, so the market will be focused on whether automotive gross margin has finally stopped falling. That’s the number most likely to move the stock tonight.
Key question #2: Conditions vary by region. U.S. Q3 sales were weighed down by the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit, falling nearly 20% year over year. Shanghai’s September wholesale volume, meanwhile, was its best month of 2026, with exports up 58%. European registrations rose 43.3% in the first eight months of the year.
Key question #3: The Cybercab / FSD rollout timeline, plus speculation about a SpaceX merger. Musk has confirmed that the two companies formed a committee to discuss a merger, and someone will likely ask him about it directly on tonight’s call.
As for company guidance: on the Q2 call, the CFO said the company had its largest order backlog since 2023. Tesla has delivered 1.325 million vehicles in the first three quarters of this year; another 311,000 in Q4 would bring it level with last year’s full-year total. (Analysts expect 1.82 million for full-year 2026.)
Market expectations vs. my forecast
Consensus: adjusted EPS of $0.44–$0.45 (Bloomberg / Zacks / TipRanks, non-GAAP), and revenue of about $28.1 billion (Bloomberg: $28.13 billion). A year ago, EPS was $0.50 and revenue was $28.1 billion. Analysts also expect Q3 free cash flow of -$4.51 billion and capex of $7.77 billion, making this a cash-burning quarter.
My forecast: adjusted EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $28.2 billion. The better-than-expected deliveries should push revenue above consensus, but margin pressure remains, and I expect EPS to come in slightly below market expectations.
Bull and bear scenarios
Holds above 349.3 → no gross-margin blowup → watch the 388.6 resistance level
Falls below 349.3 → Q2-style margin massacre → could head toward 335
Breaks above 388.6 (60-day high) → earnings plus merger narrative provide a double boost, opening the door for sentiment to turn
Support: $349.30
Resistance: $388.56
(The chart marks the support and resistance lines; yesterday’s close was $373.71.)
I’m on the sidelines, leaning bearish. The delivery news was already priced in during an early-October rally. Whether the stock can rise tonight depends entirely on whether gross margin and cash flow show real improvement—betting on earnings is too costly for retail investors given the uncertainty. I’d change my mind if automotive gross margin clearly recovers and guidance is raised.
Which side are you on tonight? A beat that sends it above 400, or a margin blowup that breaks 349?
⚠️ Just my personal ramblings; not investment advice.
#TSLA #财报季 #USStocks