When ETF selling meets buying from treasury companies, whose cues should we be watching to understand ETH’s current run?
On October 20, U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw another day of net outflows, totaling about $26 million. Cumulatively, outflows through this channel have reached about $1.08 billion in October. According to SoSoValue data (reported by CoinTelegraph on October 21), that marks the largest monthly net outflow of 2026 so far—and there are still eight trading days left in October. The $832 million in net inflows recorded in September has been completely erased, leaving year-to-date net inflows at just about $485 million.
On the same day, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $23 million, and on Monday, net inflows reached $527 million. Through the same ETF channel, BTC was roughly flat in October, while ETH saw its largest outflows of the year—a stark contrast in how investors are treating the two coins.
Another path is through treasury companies. BitMine announced on October 19 that, as of October 18, it held 6,041,481 ETH, about 4.9% of the total supply—just 0.1 percentage points shy of its 5% target. On-chain data from October 20 showed that it had deposited another 159,728 ETH (about $390 million) into staking contracts, bringing its total staked holdings to over 5.227 million ETH, or about 86.5% of its holdings (EmberCN).
The network layer also reflects this trend: about 1.33 million ETH are waiting in the staking entry queue, with a wait of more than 23 days. The exit queue has only about 149,000 ETH, which can leave in under four days. Demand from validators waiting to enter is about nine times that of those leaving.
I tend to think this is not simply a battle between bulls and bears, but two types of capital pricing ETH on entirely different time horizons: one trades regulatory products and macro liquidity, while the other takes a long-term view based on annualized staking yields. ETH fell from about $2,700 to about $2,438 in October (-9.7%, CoinGecko). The decline broadly tracked the pace of outflows, but the deeper the drop, the more favorable the cost becomes for treasury companies continuing to accumulate and stake ETH. These variables interact with each other.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee attributed this period of weakness to rising AI capital expenditure, tensions between the US and Iran, risk aversion ahead of the midterm elections, and higher global bond yields (reported by Decrypt on October 19). His argument is that when fundamentals are solid but prices are falling, history suggests it is often a favorable time in terms of risk and reward. That is, of course, a holder speaking—but it also captures the buying logic of treasury companies: the discount itself is an opportunity.
The next potential turning point in sentiment is the Fed’s rate decision on October 28. If ETF outflows stabilize before then, the treasury companies’ locked-up-supply narrative will gain credibility; if net outflows continue, the market will keep being pulled back and forth by these two opposing forces.
Going forward, I’ll be watching three things: first, when outflows through the ETF channel stabilize; second, whether this steady source of buying lets up after BitMine reaches its 5% target; and third, whether annualized staking yields can remain at their current level.
(Data in this article is current as of October 21, 2026. This is not investment advice.)
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