🧐 CryptoQuant founder says “new money is flowing into BTC,” but the price is still stuck at $83K. Who should you believe?
On October 21, CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju posted: “Fresh capital is flowing into Bitcoin. This only happens in bull markets.”
First, let’s look at what he’s referring to. This kind of assessment typically uses “realized capitalization”: instead of calculating based on the current price, it adds up the price of each coin at the time it was last transferred on-chain. When someone takes over coins at a higher price, this figure rises, so it’s more like a cost basis backed by real money than a measure of sentiment.
A roundup of related posts on X mentioned a few points:
🔹 BTC is trading sideways around $83,400, still well below its late-2025 high of around $126,000
🔹 About 81% of the supply is in profit
🔹 New large holders now account for about a third of whale activity
🔹 Prediction markets put the odds of reaching $100,000 before January 2027 at just 26%
My take: on-chain data says “someone is buying in,” while the price says “the battle isn’t won yet.” There’s no contradiction. New money is taking over old coins, and that kind of turnover is common around market bottoms. But “only happens in bull markets” is a summary of past trends, not a guarantee—and there have only been a handful of cycles.
I treat it as a background signal, not a buy signal. What really matters is whether the price can break above the broad band of resistance overhead. Until then, don’t bet on a direction with high leverage.
Do you trust on-chain data more, or candlestick charts? Do you think the 26% probability is too low?
#BTC #链上数据 #CryptoQuant #BullMarket
On October 21, CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju posted: “Fresh capital is flowing into Bitcoin. This only happens in bull markets.”
First, let’s look at what he’s referring to. This kind of assessment typically uses “realized capitalization”: instead of calculating based on the current price, it adds up the price of each coin at the time it was last transferred on-chain. When someone takes over coins at a higher price, this figure rises, so it’s more like a cost basis backed by real money than a measure of sentiment.
A roundup of related posts on X mentioned a few points:
🔹 BTC is trading sideways around $83,400, still well below its late-2025 high of around $126,000
🔹 About 81% of the supply is in profit
🔹 New large holders now account for about a third of whale activity
🔹 Prediction markets put the odds of reaching $100,000 before January 2027 at just 26%
My take: on-chain data says “someone is buying in,” while the price says “the battle isn’t won yet.” There’s no contradiction. New money is taking over old coins, and that kind of turnover is common around market bottoms. But “only happens in bull markets” is a summary of past trends, not a guarantee—and there have only been a handful of cycles.
I treat it as a background signal, not a buy signal. What really matters is whether the price can break above the broad band of resistance overhead. Until then, don’t bet on a direction with high leverage.
Do you trust on-chain data more, or candlestick charts? Do you think the 26% probability is too low?
#BTC #链上数据 #CryptoQuant #BullMarket