Put simply, the key thing to watch in TSLA’s earnings report tonight isn’t revenue—it’s the 16.3% gross margin.
Tesla’s Q3 earnings report comes out after the market closes tonight, followed by a conference call at 5:30 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow.
The consensus estimate is EPS of $0.44–$0.45 and revenue just over $28 billion, compared with $0.50 / $28.1 billion in the same quarter last year.
Delivery numbers are already out: 486,500 vehicles, beating analysts’ expectations of 462,000. Looks good.
But Q2’s numbers speak for themselves: automotive gross margin (excluding credits) was 16.3%, operating margin was just 1.4%, and free cash flow was still negative by $1.09 billion.
Selling more but earning less—that’s the story with this stock right now.
The bull case is a recovery in deliveries plus cost cuts. The bear case is just one sentence: if gross margins keep falling, the story stops adding up.
The most worrying thing is the track record: the stock fell after each of the past three earnings reports, plunging 14.5% after the one in July.
The options market is pricing in a 6–7.5% move, with 400 as the upside reference and 347 on the downside. Some people are already paying up for that move.
TSLAUSDT is currently at 379.4 on FAPI, up 2.83% over 24 hours, after reaching a high of 384.36.
I reckon today’s rise has more to do with riding on last night’s news about the merger committee on the SpaceX side than with the market cheering the earnings in advance. Don’t mix the two up.
I can’t bring myself to trade at this level. At 379, it’s caught in the middle: 388.56 is the top of the range, while 369.71 is the 20-day moving average—not much distance in either direction.
If gross margins stabilize, there’s a convincing robotaxi story, and it holds above 400, then I’ll acknowledge the trend.
If gross margins keep sliding and the conference call has no bright spots, I don’t want to catch a falling knife if it breaks below 347.
Even Musk himself called the merger talk “overblown,” so don’t treat it as a lifeline for the earnings report.
After the market closes tonight: will gross margins stabilize and the stock break above 400, or will history repeat itself and it fall below 347, heading toward 342?
I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$TSLA $SPCX $NVDA
#特斯拉 #US stocks#股票财报季
Tesla’s Q3 earnings report comes out after the market closes tonight, followed by a conference call at 5:30 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow.
The consensus estimate is EPS of $0.44–$0.45 and revenue just over $28 billion, compared with $0.50 / $28.1 billion in the same quarter last year.
Delivery numbers are already out: 486,500 vehicles, beating analysts’ expectations of 462,000. Looks good.
But Q2’s numbers speak for themselves: automotive gross margin (excluding credits) was 16.3%, operating margin was just 1.4%, and free cash flow was still negative by $1.09 billion.
Selling more but earning less—that’s the story with this stock right now.
The bull case is a recovery in deliveries plus cost cuts. The bear case is just one sentence: if gross margins keep falling, the story stops adding up.
The most worrying thing is the track record: the stock fell after each of the past three earnings reports, plunging 14.5% after the one in July.
The options market is pricing in a 6–7.5% move, with 400 as the upside reference and 347 on the downside. Some people are already paying up for that move.
TSLAUSDT is currently at 379.4 on FAPI, up 2.83% over 24 hours, after reaching a high of 384.36.
I reckon today’s rise has more to do with riding on last night’s news about the merger committee on the SpaceX side than with the market cheering the earnings in advance. Don’t mix the two up.
I can’t bring myself to trade at this level. At 379, it’s caught in the middle: 388.56 is the top of the range, while 369.71 is the 20-day moving average—not much distance in either direction.
If gross margins stabilize, there’s a convincing robotaxi story, and it holds above 400, then I’ll acknowledge the trend.
If gross margins keep sliding and the conference call has no bright spots, I don’t want to catch a falling knife if it breaks below 347.
Even Musk himself called the merger talk “overblown,” so don’t treat it as a lifeline for the earnings report.
After the market closes tonight: will gross margins stabilize and the stock break above 400, or will history repeat itself and it fall below 347, heading toward 342?
I’m betting on the latter. What about you?
$TSLA $SPCX $NVDA
#特斯拉 #US stocks#股票财报季