A flying Roadster can’t save tonight’s earnings
On October 15, Musk unveiled the second-gen Roadster
Jumps over 5 cars, 0–100 km/h in 0.59 seconds, production not until 2028
It won’t materially boost results
Unveiled in 2017, originally slated for delivery in 2020, now pushed to 2028
Estimated annual sales: 2,000 cars; Tesla sells 1.8 million a year
Musk himself says it won’t drive revenue
It’s a story stock, not an earnings play
After tonight’s earnings: bearish in the short term
Deliveries: 486,532, 5.3% above expectations, down 2.1% year over year
Revenue flat year over year
EPS: 0.43–0.45 vs. 0.50 last year; estimates cut 18% over 90 days
Q2 automotive gross margin was 16.3%; expected to recover to 17%
Free cash flow: -$1.1 billion; full-year capex: $25 billion
Sales are being bought with price cuts, while cash flow bleeds
The stock has already rallied ahead of the news
$350 on October 17, now $380, up 8%
Morgan Stanley target: $400; average target: $397.83, leaving just 5% upside
The good news is already priced in
A risk looms after earnings
NHTSA wants a response by October 30 on Cybercab certification
Bullish in the medium term
Robotaxi is the main story: the Austin fleet grew 8x in 30 days to 300 vehicles, with over 1 million miles driven unsupervised
But that doesn’t mean this quarter’s numbers will deliver
How to trade
Don’t chase before earnings; $380 offers poor risk-reward
Buy in stages if it falls below $350
Above $400, look for $420
Don’t go long on the Roadster story—it’s the easiest way to get trapped
The car can fly; profits can’t 👀
$TSLA
#股票财报季 #特斯拉 #TSLA
On October 15, Musk unveiled the second-gen Roadster
Jumps over 5 cars, 0–100 km/h in 0.59 seconds, production not until 2028
It won’t materially boost results
Unveiled in 2017, originally slated for delivery in 2020, now pushed to 2028
Estimated annual sales: 2,000 cars; Tesla sells 1.8 million a year
Musk himself says it won’t drive revenue
It’s a story stock, not an earnings play
After tonight’s earnings: bearish in the short term
Deliveries: 486,532, 5.3% above expectations, down 2.1% year over year
Revenue flat year over year
EPS: 0.43–0.45 vs. 0.50 last year; estimates cut 18% over 90 days
Q2 automotive gross margin was 16.3%; expected to recover to 17%
Free cash flow: -$1.1 billion; full-year capex: $25 billion
Sales are being bought with price cuts, while cash flow bleeds
The stock has already rallied ahead of the news
$350 on October 17, now $380, up 8%
Morgan Stanley target: $400; average target: $397.83, leaving just 5% upside
The good news is already priced in
A risk looms after earnings
NHTSA wants a response by October 30 on Cybercab certification
Bullish in the medium term
Robotaxi is the main story: the Austin fleet grew 8x in 30 days to 300 vehicles, with over 1 million miles driven unsupervised
But that doesn’t mean this quarter’s numbers will deliver
How to trade
Don’t chase before earnings; $380 offers poor risk-reward
Buy in stages if it falls below $350
Above $400, look for $420
Don’t go long on the Roadster story—it’s the easiest way to get trapped
The car can fly; profits can’t 👀
$TSLA
#股票财报季 #特斯拉 #TSLA