#earningsseason
Tesla reports earnings today. What is the market pricing in?
The right question:
It’s not EPS. It’s the size of the expected move.
The numbers:
Typical reaction: ~4.5%.
Average: ~7.8%, driven by two outsized moves.
Options are pricing in something close to the higher number.
What we already know:
Deliveries: 486,532 vehicles (announced on October 2).
Any surprise has to come from margins and guidance, not volume.
Why this matters for risk:
A gap after the close can exceed your stop-loss.
A position sized for a 4% move may be too large for an 8% move.
Tail risk is real.
Three ways to handle it:
1. Trade the earnings release:
Accept the gap. Keep the position small.
2. Trade the reaction:
Wait for the first session after the results.
Let the direction reveal itself.
3. Sit it out:
Avoid the event.
Come back after the earnings call for guidance on margins and capex.
What’s your choice?
What position size is too large for an 8% gap?
Share.
$TSLAB
$ARIA
$ZEC
#MuskReportedlyOrderedStarlinkSlowdownInUkraine
Tesla reports earnings today. What is the market pricing in?
The right question:
It’s not EPS. It’s the size of the expected move.
The numbers:
Typical reaction: ~4.5%.
Average: ~7.8%, driven by two outsized moves.
Options are pricing in something close to the higher number.
What we already know:
Deliveries: 486,532 vehicles (announced on October 2).
Any surprise has to come from margins and guidance, not volume.
Why this matters for risk:
A gap after the close can exceed your stop-loss.
A position sized for a 4% move may be too large for an 8% move.
Tail risk is real.
Three ways to handle it:
1. Trade the earnings release:
Accept the gap. Keep the position small.
2. Trade the reaction:
Wait for the first session after the results.
Let the direction reveal itself.
3. Sit it out:
Avoid the event.
Come back after the earnings call for guidance on margins and capex.
What’s your choice?
What position size is too large for an 8% gap?
Share.
$TSLAB
$ARIA
$ZEC
#MuskReportedlyOrderedStarlinkSlowdownInUkraine