Market cycles: Halving is not a countdown to a rally
Bitcoin halving changes the rate of new issuance. It does not directly determine demand, nor does it guarantee that a bull market will begin on a specific date. Interest rates, liquidity, leverage, and market expectations all affect prices, and expectations may already be priced in.
Past cycles can provide a framework for analysis, but the sample size is small and conditions differ, so you can’t simply follow the calendar and expect the same returns. My view: treat cycles as a tool for scenario analysis, not a reason to go all in. First, spell out “what happens if I’m wrong.”
Bitcoin halving changes the rate of new issuance. It does not directly determine demand, nor does it guarantee that a bull market will begin on a specific date. Interest rates, liquidity, leverage, and market expectations all affect prices, and expectations may already be priced in.
Past cycles can provide a framework for analysis, but the sample size is small and conditions differ, so you can’t simply follow the calendar and expect the same returns. My view: treat cycles as a tool for scenario analysis, not a reason to go all in. First, spell out “what happens if I’m wrong.”