On the four-hour chart, gold surged from around 4197 before pulling back. The subsequent bearish candles gradually erased the gains made by the preceding large bullish candle, while the highs of the rebounds have also been getting lower. Buyers tried to push prices higher along the way, but left a pronounced long upper wick. Bearish candles then continued to drive prices down, indicating that buying attempts are met with selling and that sellers remain in control. The lower wick near 4114 shows some buying support, but the recovery has so far been limited and has not reclaimed the main losses from the previous decline. The broader structure should still be viewed as a recovery following a decline.
On the one-hour chart, the struggle at the lows has started to shift. After dipping to a low and recovering, the most recent pullback did not immediately set a new low. A bullish candle then retraced most of the preceding bearish candle’s losses, suggesting that buyers are beginning to push back at lower levels. However, prices did not continue to climb after that bullish candle; they were quickly pressed back down by a bearish candle, showing that the rebound lacks follow-through. Given this pattern, there may be an opportunity for a short-term test of overhead selling pressure, with the area around 4135 as the key level to watch. If prices rise above it but still leave an upper wick and the bullish candle’s body fails to extend, sellers could use the rebound to push prices back down.
The key now is how far buying support at lower levels can lift gold. If the rebound cannot break free of overhead pressure, there is still a chance of another test of 4114. Only if the previous low is decisively broken by a candle body and prices fail to reclaim it on a pullback would the next lower round-number level come into view.
Sell gold at 4135–4138, with a first target of 4115, then 4100. Stop loss at 4146. $XAU
#XAU
On the one-hour chart, the struggle at the lows has started to shift. After dipping to a low and recovering, the most recent pullback did not immediately set a new low. A bullish candle then retraced most of the preceding bearish candle’s losses, suggesting that buyers are beginning to push back at lower levels. However, prices did not continue to climb after that bullish candle; they were quickly pressed back down by a bearish candle, showing that the rebound lacks follow-through. Given this pattern, there may be an opportunity for a short-term test of overhead selling pressure, with the area around 4135 as the key level to watch. If prices rise above it but still leave an upper wick and the bullish candle’s body fails to extend, sellers could use the rebound to push prices back down.
The key now is how far buying support at lower levels can lift gold. If the rebound cannot break free of overhead pressure, there is still a chance of another test of 4114. Only if the previous low is decisively broken by a candle body and prices fail to reclaim it on a pullback would the next lower round-number level come into view.
Sell gold at 4135–4138, with a first target of 4115, then 4100. Stop loss at 4146. $XAU
#XAU