#EarningsSeason

Tesla has just unveiled the new Roadster with SpaceX thrusters that actually flies, performs aerial maneuvers, and lands. The hype is huge, but the right question for anyone trading $TSLA is: does this change anything in the results coming out tomorrow?

The short answer is no.

The Roadster is a halo car. Even if it sells 2,000 or 3,000 units a year at high prices, its contribution to revenue would be irrelevant (less than 1% of automotive revenue). Elon himself has already admitted that the financial impact is small. What matters now is what the market will look at in the third-quarter earnings report:

  • Deliveries of 486,532 vehicles (above consensus)

  • Revenue expected at around $28 billion (practically flat)

  • Projected non-GAAP EPS of about $0.45 (down ~10% year over year)

  • Automotive gross margin and free cash flow under pressure due to higher capex

The market is already pricing in the “dream” (robotaxis, Optimus, autonomy). What it won’t forgive is declining margins and cash burn without clear guidance on when the Cybercab will start generating meaningful revenue.

My view:

I’m cautious in the short term. The Roadster unveiling is brilliant marketing, but it doesn’t change tomorrow’s numbers. If Tesla delivers weak margins or even higher capex guidance without providing clarity on the robotaxi timeline, the stock could pull back. I remain optimistic about the autonomy thesis over the long term, but I won’t pay just any price for it.

How I’m adjusting my position:

I’ve trimmed my $TSLA exposure a bit over the past few sessions and put on a light hedge with short-term puts for earnings day. I’d rather wait for the earnings call and the market’s reaction before increasing my position again. If the company shows margin discipline and some concrete signs of software/autonomy monetization, I’ll buy back in aggressively. If all we get is hype and weak numbers, I’ll keep my money in cash.

What about you? Are you adding, trimming, or just watching the Roadster show while the earnings report does the talking?

#EarningsSeason