Yesterday I said this rebound had no money behind it, and today’s data proved me wrong. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $527 million in net inflows on Monday, their biggest single-day inflow in nearly a month. And almost all of it came from BlackRock’s IBIT: it bought $665 million worth in a single day, more than the entire market’s net inflows. Fidelity saw $83.6 million in outflows, Grayscale $54.9 million, while most others were basically unchanged. The money is back, but it’s coming in through just one door.

The hole from the first half of October has basically been filled, leaving cumulative net outflows for the month at only about $88 million. As for price, BTC hit a high of 83,439 today and is now around 82,900, pushing through overhead supply above 83,000. ETF holders’ average cost is around 84,358 (according to Bitfinex), and the higher the price goes, the thicker the supply of investors looking to break even. A daily close holding above 83,000 matters far more than just briefly touching it intraday.

There are two risks, too. First, spot ETH ETFs saw another $103 million in outflows today, extending the streak to four days. This is a targeted “BTC only” buying spree, not a broad return of risk appetite. Second, options markets are still scrambling for downside protection. Tesla reports earnings tonight, and if U.S. stocks turn lower, crypto will have a hard time staying unscathed.

Conclusion: The rebound has cleared the “money” hurdle. Next, watch whether BTC can hold above 83,000. If it does, the rebound could turn into a reversal; if not, we’re still range-bound between 80,000 and 83,500. Keep an eye on 80,800 at the bottom of the range; we’ll reassess if it breaks. $BTC